January 30 2026
- Davos trip recap
- More business centric
- More American presence
- Trump effect
- Larry Fink is the new one running it so new influence
- Lutnick let the folks there have it on their decel agenda
- Climate agenda “bloom is off the rose”
- Great powers define the international system - not second/mid tier powers
- Before US intervention Europe has had a bloody war history - since 1945 there has been not as much conflict because of American influence
- Europe is desperate to keep US in NATO - so they are responding to Trump asking them to pay their fair share
- Greenland is the hot new issue - Trump took use-of-force off the table so hopefully a peaceful/reasonable solution can be negotiated
- Minneapolis and ICE
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Stephen Miller, Kristy Noem, Greg Bovino involved
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Trump pivots to Tom Homan
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Most states ICE isn’t having a problem so this issue is unique to Minnesota
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Minnesota has an organized resistance to ICE
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Media and leftists are ignoring the reality and creating a tinderbox
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The motivation of left might be to deflect from the massive fraud that is being uncovered in Minnesota
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Census apportionment projections show result of migrations from blue states to red states
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Their leaders have said that they want to defang ICE, DHS, Border patrol, etc
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But majority want illegals deported
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This could mean differences in electoral votes and house seats
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You can disagree with the law but you can’t physically obstruct law enforcement
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Ray Dalio predicts 35-40% chance of civil war in the US (predicted this in 2020)
- People are feeling left behind and so they are getting activated by these messages
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The result is that Trump’s approval rating is dropping
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ICE agents are wearing masks because they are getting doxxed
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- ClawdBot
- Peter Steinberger
- Open Source personal assistant like Siri or Jarvis
- You can run it like a server and hook it up to all your apps with credentials
- This will be the year of the rise of the personal AI assistant
- Google could leverage their strong position because users have already determined them to be safe
- This could happen in the real world with Optimus, etc
- You can reduce your costs by running things on a mac with a free model like Kimi, etc
- Kimi 2.5
- Open source is powerful - you get a lot more control
- Trillion parameter model with mixture of experts
- Very profound - available to everybody
- This could cut AI costs - marry new decode silicon hardware (like Groq, etc) with open source
- This could be dangerous as the AI writes more and more of the code - it doesn’t
- Dollar decline
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Gold, silver, copper have grown a lot
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In a democracy, over time people always ask their government to do more - and that is inevitable
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Eventually the bill will come due
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M2 money supply is going parabolic
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Foreign governments are holding more Gold and less US treasuries as a percentage
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US stock market value has dropped in Gold
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US treasury yield is 4.9% super high
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This is fueling populism in the US - socialism, etc - even got Trump elected - folks own less - and asset holders’ holdings are increasing in value
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Wealth Tax in CA might be an inevitability in order to prevent the US from going into a civil war
- Of course the CA wealth tax is going to special interests and waste, fraud and abuse - not the people - everything just gets worse - they are well organized
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- CA Governor race
- Matt Mahan enters the race
- Has a good record being Mayor of San Jose
- Eric Swalwell also
- Lots of candidates
- CA has a $1T fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations
- There is precedent in CA state court that you cannot change someone’s future benefits on the day they were hired
- Promised for life
- Another question is who would Newsom like to replace him?
- A Republican would be a rebuke of him
- He needs to run for President so can’t let the state go to worse waste
- Matt Mahan enters the race
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