February 13 2026
- AI updates
- New study shows workers using AI work harder but burn out more
- Moving from task based jobs to purpose based jobs
- Matt Shumer article went viral - Something Big is Happening
- Early adopter employees will excel and replace existing tools/stacks bottom up
- Jason tweet to learn OpenClaw went viral
- Is On Prem the new Cloud?
- Seems this might be the best way for companies to protect themselves
- What about employees uploading information to the public LLMs?
- Even if they get caught isn’t it too late?
- We thought the models would improve recursively - but it seems the output is recursive
- Jason’s replicant infrastructure is quite sophisticated - using Opus 4.6 to orchestrate to all the Kimi agents hosted on Mac minis locally
- Creating central Ultron to do lot of the company’s work
- AWS Bedrock could be too expensive
- When do tokens outpace salary?
- Prediction Markets
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A billion bets on Kalshi, 700M on Polymarket, etc - hit a big high during SuperBowl
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Markets thrive during asymmetry
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A ton of sharps will take advantage of a ton of squares unless you regulate it away
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- All In Liquidity Conference
- May in wine country Yountville
- Best public market investors, LPs, CEOs of fastest growing technology companies
- Debt Death Spiral
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Crazy Budget Outlook 😟
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Social security trust runs out in 2032 - earlier than projected
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If Democrats with mid terms and White House after that - a LOT more money will be printed to fund social security obligations
- Even CA has $1T un funded pension obligations to public employees
- Federal government will federalize these state budget deficits
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That could be the concrete that breaks the camel’s back
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But this same report also says GDP growth will be 2.2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027
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Maybe we could just limit rate of spending growth to let it catch up with economic growth
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Federal employment is at its lowest level since 1966
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When people move from govt workforce to private workforce its a positive - they are more productive
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History of debt to GDP of the world’s major economies
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Things are relative - if that stays then its not the end of the world
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Kevin Warsh and the Fed - what will they do?
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Jason predicts Trump might raise the minimum wage as a gambit for winning the midterms
- Studies show minimum wage increases cause prices to increase
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- GDP growth indicates an economic boom
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Jobs growth in private sector
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Unemployment rate down 4.3%
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GDP growth
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AI boom is insane
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Tackling illegal immigration could help the employment numbers
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- Ferrari’s fully electric car reported
- Heaviest Ferrari ever
- Lexus LM is good for being driven in
- Toyota Alfred is similar
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