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All In Podcast Episode 261 Recap and Notes February 13 2026

February 13 2026

  • AI updates
    • New study shows workers using AI work harder but burn out more
    • Moving from task based jobs to purpose based jobs
    • Matt Shumer article went viral - Something Big is Happening
    • Early adopter employees will excel and replace existing tools/stacks bottom up
    • Jason tweet to learn OpenClaw went viral
    • Is On Prem the new Cloud?
      • Seems this might be the best way for companies to protect themselves
      • What about employees uploading information to the public LLMs?
        • Even if they get caught isn’t it too late?
    • We thought the models would improve recursively - but it seems the output is recursive
    • Jason’s replicant infrastructure is quite sophisticated - using Opus 4.6 to orchestrate to all the Kimi agents hosted on Mac minis locally
      • Creating central Ultron to do lot of the company’s work
    • AWS Bedrock could be too expensive
    • When do tokens outpace salary?
  • Prediction Markets

    • A billion bets on Kalshi, 700M on Polymarket, etc - hit a big high during SuperBowl

    • Markets thrive during asymmetry

    • A ton of sharps will take advantage of a ton of squares unless you regulate it away

  • All In Liquidity Conference
    • May in wine country Yountville
    • Best public market investors, LPs, CEOs of fastest growing technology companies
  • Debt Death Spiral

    • Crazy Budget Outlook 😟

    • Social security trust runs out in 2032 - earlier than projected

    • If Democrats with mid terms and White House after that - a LOT more money will be printed to fund social security obligations

      • Even CA has $1T un funded pension obligations to public employees
      • Federal government will federalize these state budget deficits

    • That could be the concrete that breaks the camel’s back

    • But this same report also says GDP growth will be 2.2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027

    • Maybe we could just limit rate of spending growth to let it catch up with economic growth

    • Federal employment is at its lowest level since 1966

    • When people move from govt workforce to private workforce its a positive - they are more productive

    • History of debt to GDP of the world’s major economies

    • Things are relative - if that stays then its not the end of the world

    • Kevin Warsh and the Fed - what will they do?

    • Jason predicts Trump might raise the minimum wage as a gambit for winning the midterms

      • Studies show minimum wage increases cause prices to increase
  • GDP growth indicates an economic boom

    • Jobs growth in private sector

    • Unemployment rate down 4.3%

    • GDP growth

    • AI boom is insane

    • Tackling illegal immigration could help the employment numbers

  • Ferrari’s fully electric car reported
    • Heaviest Ferrari ever
    • Lexus LM is good for being driven in
    • Toyota Alfred is similar

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