All In Podcast Episode 268 Recap and Notes April 17 2026

April 17 2026

• Mamdani Tax
  • Pied-a-terre tax
    • Dumb because second home will be taxed and thats the most elastic part of the market - so no one will buy second home in NY
  • This is like a dog whistle - asking for United Healthcare CEO type shooting or Sam Altman home firebombing
  • Maybe this is good for hotels
  • This hurt London - land banking - so maybe it will work out for NY
  • Maybe the solution is building more housing - like in Austin
  • Its obviously good for the city to have billionaires park their money in these cities
    • They also don’t consume resources but pay property taxes so its profitable for the city
    • So this will hurt
  • With the London situation rich people moved to other cities in Europe
  • Transaction costs in LA and SF are too high (could be 13% of property)
  • Your property is not safe in blue states - wealthy people will realize that - the political class thinks they can take a chunk of it
• OpenAI
  • Internal memo shows targeting Anthropic and going after their market share in Enterprise
  • Anonymous OpenAI investors are questioning the company’s focus
  • Debate about Enterprise vs Consumer Focus
  • If Anthropic is funding their growth through revenue and others are funding it through investment then efficiency (former) will win
  • (OpenAI should have bought AllIn instead of TBPN?)
  • Anthropic’s growth rate is astronomical
  • Anthropic’s enterprise bet has worked out - its a more scalable revenue source - enterprises will pay on a metered basis for more tokens - consumers are more cost conscious
  • The only thing holding Anthropic back is their own advocation for Data Center NIMBYism
  • The HyperScalers control 60% of compute
  • So was Anthropic holding back Mythos just because they didn’t have compute and instead virtue signaled
• AllBirds stock rises after AI pivot

  • They were a sneaker company

  • Part of trend where atoms companies valued like bits companies - maybe ushered in by Travis and Uber

  • Now they might be rebranding also

  • Another interesting transaction is Jane Street’s investment/compute deal in another neocloud type thing

  • So the capital markets are showing correctly we are massively compute constrained

  • Bloom Energy has gone vertical because of this trend

  • American population is in general more anti-AI

    

  • Like a recent case a small missouri town board got voted out after they approved a data center buildout

  • Maine passed a bill that bans all data center builds

  • So AllBirds went up because we are compute constrained

  • Anthropic and OpenAI absolutely need more compute

  • Maybe 30 states might ban them outright

  • 3 categories of obstructions

    • Its clear residents don’t want data centers to come in without their own power generation - that makes sense - else rates will go up
    • Doomer folks are also convincing people successfully that Data Centers are a way to attack AI progress
    • Anthropic contributed to this discourse early on

  • Another category

    • Most people in America are starting to hate rich people and the data center is the physical embodiment of rich people and their power so this is the best way to attack them

  • Another problem for data centers is the business model of the utility company - they are incentivized to increase the cost of power infrastructure because they get paid a percentage of their costs

  • Also shows what a pysop and hoax the opposition was to the data center buildout in the middle east - Iran is destroying them now

• Eric Swalwell drops out of Governor race

  • Also resigned from congress

  • How come the knowledge of his alleged shenanigans coming out only now?

  • Weird dynamic in CA Governor race - so-called “jungle primary”

    

  • Conspiracy Theory: Dem establishment nerfed him now before it was too late to deal with his issues later on when he might be running against a Republican

    • Sounds a lot like what happened with Biden when he was running against Trump 2024

  • Unrelated - incredible investing by some members of Congress

    

  • “RegFD” does not apply to members of congress

• Stock market
  • Buffett sitting on a pile of cash
  • Markets erased all war losses and have hit all time highs because they think the Islamabad talks made progress and folks think the war will end soon
  • TACO = Trump Always Cares about Optics?

    • The stock market is Trump’s weather vane

    • Schiller PE

      

    • Buffet Index - ratio of US companies to GDP

      

    • SP500 as leading indicator of markets?

      

    • So we are in a phase of the market where you can find a chart to underwrite your own bias

    • So maybe be risk off (due to uncertainty)

    • Startups are leveraging AI well

    • Big companies are not able to yet