All the crap you never needed

E203: November 8 2024 Trump Wins! Holiday Party Steve Aoke DJing Andrea Botez + Alex will do DJ and Chess Spending $1M+ All In expanded the overton window + foil (Sacks and Jason) - so helped Trump win Indirectly Jason starting All In Pod helped Trump win maybe! Sacks at Mar A Lago Joined Tucker show in the library Trump felt calm Met Elon, Jared, etc Trump had a resounding victory What happened People got tired of being judged harshly by the Dems Comprehensive victory Inflation Bad Dem candidate Podcast strategy Chamath was with Clinton, Obama (during Brexit had breakfast), etc Dems only come to him for money Trump was the only one who just talked to him There have been deliberate efforts to perturb the way he is portrayed and how people from across him are portrayed Message, Messenger and Campaign Strategy Manchin was driven into retirement and Sinema was kicked out of the party because Dems didn’t get to pass even more $4.5T sp

November 1 2024 Jason partying stories from the previous week AllIn holiday party Dec 7 at Palace of Fine Arts Apparently it’ll be $1M party??? Election Night YouTube Live stream at 7pm pacific US GDP growth seems healthy 2.8% growth in Q3 (adjusted for inflation) Better than other western countries Lots of national debt though 3M federal government employees Total almost 25M people working for the government (fed + state + local, etc) Both candidates are proposing lots of spending Government consumption of GDP Most of the gains under Biden administration are from the government But private sector is struggling DropBox layoffs latest example (announced layoffs) Questionable whether this will affect voting because its come so late in the news cycle Voters might be more affected by inflation and jobs Prime Rate is 8% This rate determines bond rates Bank unrealized losses are crazy This is worse than in 2008 Buffett war

 October 25 2024 Jason took Chamath’s sweater 🙂 and everything else 😉 Next to Sacks’s house 🙂 Friedberg’s moderating because Jason’s traveling AllIn Holiday Party! Sacks doesn’t want to come - he likes celebrating the pandemic 6 months a year 😛 Markets Bonds are falling Gold is going up SP500 is also going up BTC is also up US dollar is strong Seems markets are predicting a Trump win from a toss up election Perception that Trump plan will drive better economic growth than the Harris plan Trillions of dollars are moving because they’re predicting a Trump win BTC and Gold go up because of inflation hedge Paul Tudor Jones Long gold, BTC, commodities zero fixed income “all roads lead to inflation” Doesn’t want to own treasuries apparently Even Stan Druckemiller is apparently short US treasuries 20% of his portfolio or something Market doesn’t think inflation is whipped Interest on national debt has gone parabolic 20-25

  E200: October 18 2024 Friedberg shilling SuperGut AllIn Livestream on Election Night Sacks will go to Mar a Lago if its in the bag for Trump Polls and predictions for Election Both sides think their candidate did well in the adversarial interview and the other candidate failed Media war going on - its fair to ask about the bias in the media Voter verification systems make sense - at least its fair to ask what it should be like Awesome Friedberg answer Elon’s Great Week Tesla We Robot Starship Booster catch SpaceX has reduced cost 10x in the last decade or so Starlink could be one of the biggest businesses on earth Friedberg got his first Tesla - Model S Plaid - better than his Audi RS 7 Uber exploring Expedia acquisition Since Dara left Expedia, stock wise it has been sideways Expedia is just a UI layer on top of the data Why pay potentially $30B? Perplexity is apparently testing a feature where they can book flights for you Should Uber just

October 11 2024 E200 meetups next week allin.com ! Jason secured it Hurricane season Milton lands in Florida :( Downgraded from Cat 5 to 3 to 1 90% of the energy we get from the sun is absorbed into our oceans Removing SO2 from cargo ships - causes acid rain so we removed it - is causing warming in the oceans - doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans SO2 used to trigger cloud formation So are we mean reverting then? Maybe! So it seems we had artificial cooling due to SO2 When hurricanes hit land, they no longer have the hot ocean energy pumping them up So went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 Helene - hot air hit cold mountain and caused a lot of precipitation - like 18 inches of rainfall Economics $500B-$1T of real estate on the Florida coastline Untenable insurance risk now - because of frequency of hurricane events - now you can lose the value of your home once in 20-30 years instead of once in hundreds of years in the past Florida state’s reinsurance capacit

October 3 2024 Mark Cuban joins the podcast! Cuban’s history with Trump Quite amicable overall Likes him personally but doesn’t think he’s the right person for the job Trump’s record Bad Didn’t show great leadership during the BLM riots Support for Saudis during Yemen conflict Interesting linkage between price of oil rise to track inflation Trump helped oil companies by asking Saudis and Putin to curtail production - the deal was 2 years long - and that led to high inflation for that duration which got better after the deal expired Friedberg counters that the cause of inflation was government and Fed monetary and fiscal policy - of pouring trillions of dollars into the world economy (unprecedented) Everything was constrained, not just energy Larry Summers also warned in Q1 of Biden-Harris administration that they were doing the wrong thing with passing the Inflation Explosion Act Good Great salesman, crowd motivator Bringing down corporate tax rate Capital gains