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All In Podcast Episode 199 Recap and Notes October 11 2024

October 11 2024 E200 meetups next week allin.com ! Jason secured it Hurricane season Milton lands in Florida :( Downgraded from Cat 5 to 3 to 1 90% of the energy we get from the sun is absorbed into our oceans Removing SO2 from cargo ships - causes acid rain so we removed it - is causing warming in the oceans - doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans SO2 used to trigger cloud formation So are we mean reverting then? Maybe! So it seems we had artificial cooling due to SO2 When hurricanes hit land, they no longer have the hot ocean energy pumping them up So went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 Helene - hot air hit cold mountain and caused a lot of precipitation - like 18 inches of rainfall Economics $500B-$1T of real estate on the Florida coastline Untenable insurance risk now - because of frequency of hurricane events - now you can lose the value of your home once in 20-30 years instead of once in hundreds of years in the past Florida state’s reinsurance capacit
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All In Podcast Episode 198 Recap and Notes October 3 2024

October 3 2024 Mark Cuban joins the podcast! Cuban’s history with Trump Quite amicable overall Likes him personally but doesn’t think he’s the right person for the job Trump’s record Bad Didn’t show great leadership during the BLM riots Support for Saudis during Yemen conflict Interesting linkage between price of oil rise to track inflation Trump helped oil companies by asking Saudis and Putin to curtail production - the deal was 2 years long - and that led to high inflation for that duration which got better after the deal expired Friedberg counters that the cause of inflation was government and Fed monetary and fiscal policy - of pouring trillions of dollars into the world economy (unprecedented) Everything was constrained, not just energy Larry Summers also warned in Q1 of Biden-Harris administration that they were doing the wrong thing with passing the Inflation Explosion Act Good Great salesman, crowd motivator Bringing down corporate tax rate Capital gains

All In Podcast Episode 197 Recap and Notes September 27 2024

September 27 2024 OpenAI memoriam parody Chamath on Joe Rogan OpenAI $150B valuation Converting to B corp - benefit corp - kinda like C corp - so fiduciary for not just shareholders but some external factors that’s more than just profits Patagonia is similar - for profit with a mission Non profit is a minority shareholder - much smaller now Profit cap will be removed Probably raising $6.5B Altman might get 7% stake Bull case Can probably invest the capital well - they have lead in model performance, etc Could become a true global player Maybe computing extensions stuff Revenue growth seems strong Some rumors have it higher than 3.4B so closer to 5B maybe? So valuation might be warranted Bear case Underlying technology could be replaced by open source (is Llama really good?) Meta could incorporate AI assistants into their app eco system - Google could do the same thing - so you don’t have to go to ChatGPT maybe Competing with large companies will b

All In Podcast Episode 196 Recap and Notes September 20 2024

September 20 2024 All In Summit 2024 after glow 20M views for content released so far across YouTube and X Debrief Friedberg did great Team did well Jason was amazing moderator Mearsheimer Sachs was the best panel Fed cuts rates 50 basis points Markets are up Last 3 times rates were cut (~2000, ~2008, ~2020), markets crashed (though 2020 was briefer) If the market is good, why not cut just 0.25% to begin with? Why 0.5%? This could affect hiring badly in the middle class Tech hiring is benefitting if you’re in AI - but otherwise its bad AI disruption Call centers will probably be hit Customer support makes sense for AI - they can rise through the levels of support (tier1, etc) What’s important is minimizing the error rate As the models get so much better - why can’t we just use the models coming next year with a smaller team So this will get commoditized soon So you need to target super highly regulated industries - where you need 0% error rate Klarna claim o

All In Podcast Episode 195 Recap and Notes September 6 2024

September 6 2024 Founder Mode!!! AIS 2024 Lineup Announcements Elon! Marc Benioff Bari Weiss Kristen Sinema John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs Nikesh Arora Peter Thiel Michael Ovitz (read his book) Panels Tech Robotics Jobee, Archer, Whisk Gecko Robotics - product demo Waymo CEO Altos Labs CEO Adyen - Ingo Megyn Kelly Woody Hoburg Astronaut Thomas Lafont - Coatue cofounder Sponsors Accel Events Merch.com Etc Google Cloud $350K per AI startup Paul Graham Founder Mode essay Brian Chesky YC advice talk Inspired by how Jobs ran Apple maybe Manager mode vs Founder mode There are managers like Nikesh Arora, Shantanu Narayen, Satya Nadella who have created more value than almost all founders bar 1-2 Similar prior art High Output Management - Andy Grove Demon mode at Elon’s companies (from Walter Isaacson book) How novel is this concept really - but also how true is it Silicon Valley ecosystem revolves around Founders But Founders aren’t always rig

All In Podcast Episode 194 Recap and Notes August 30 2024

August 30 2024 Reif Hoffman joins Paypal memories Sacks figured out the business model quick Hoffman kept all attackers at bay Bill Harris fired from Paypal - conspiracy at Antonio’s Nut House in Palo Alto apparently AI Crazy NVIDIA growth Training vs Inference will play out in a year or two Satya is the best public market CEO of our generation - Hoffman Big tech is buying GPUs to be better positioned - can’t miss out on the wave Lots of winners to come in AI - open source as well as closed Multi model approach will quickly be universal OpenAI corporate structure InflectionAI Lina Khan, FTC Can’t hurt the chance for returns on risk capital Her actions are chilling that market and having the opposite effect - not increasing competition Apple - fewer people hate it - its less offensive Politics chat Biden vs Kamala RFK Jr ballot controversies Extremist rhetoric is to get the votes of the extremes Jan 6 is red line RFK Jr Was offered VP - refused Found c

All In Podcast Episode 193 Recap and Notes August 23 2024

August 23 2024 Sit to pee BLS revises job numbers down ~30% 818000 down - March 2023 - Mar/Apr 2023 2.9M → 2.1M Largest revision since 2009 (GFC) Professional and business services down Sacks called it MIT publishes admissions data post affirmative action end Racial composition has changed from previously Tier 2 schools’s students might be better than Tier 1 schools’s because they are not corrupted by woke DEI nonsense, are less entitled and work harder Election Kamala doing better in the polls (Silver Bulletin shows her kinda in the lead) But Polymarket has Trump ahead Polling vs Prediction Markets is interesting Comparison of tickets Private vs Public JD Vance is historically the most unpopular VP pick Media coverage of Harris is 84% +ve and Trump is 89% -ve Walz and Harris have only ever worked for the government Vance and Trump have worked in private business Gina Raimundo caught being unaware of BLS - reacted with shock to jobs repo