March 3 2026 Ray Dalio 3rd time back Had made some good input on last appearance just when Trump was getting inaugurated Deficit was hoped to be reined in to 3% but now its 6% (deficit to gdp) Backdrop - sadly too much war and irreconciliable differences between both parties Foreign buyers will be hesitant then Dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio Geopolitical risks also there - debtor and creditor could have conflict (US/China, US/Europe even?) These kinds of cycles have happened repeatedly through history Structurally a little difficult to do DOGE kind of efforts at this stage Gold Not some precious metal that people speculate on - its the second largest currency that central banks choose to keep Distinguish wealth from money Wealth you can’t spend (buildings, etc) You have to sell it to spend Money you can spend Gold could be considered to now have reached a fair value vs being undervalued earlier Countries and people shoul...
February 27 2026 Chamath launched his own YouTube channel Claude’s hit list 3 for 3 in tanking different market sectors in February Feb 3 - Legal plugin for Claude Cowork Thomson Reuters, Legalzoom etc down Feb 20 - Claude Code Security CrowdStrike, etc down Feb 23 - Claude announces COBOL modernizing IBM down Some of this is smart finance players changing positions likely Markets are in “if” mindset vs “when” mindset - can AI models disrupt the market? So when you don’t know how to price it, you want a massive margin of safety PEs go down, Revenue multiples go down Viral Citrini AI report also might have had an effect Were there any shorters who had something to do with the article? Derek Thompson response about AI narratives being science fiction ideas is a good one Natural for market to react like this given uncertainty in future vs how reliable SaaS used to be Is there really enough consumptive capacity on the other side of AI doing eve...