November 1 2024 Jason partying stories from the previous week AllIn holiday party Dec 7 at Palace of Fine Arts Apparently it’ll be $1M party??? Election Night YouTube Live stream at 7pm pacific US GDP growth seems healthy 2.8% growth in Q3 (adjusted for inflation) Better than other western countries Lots of national debt though 3M federal government employees Total almost 25M people working for the government (fed + state + local, etc) Both candidates are proposing lots of spending Government consumption of GDP Most of the gains under Biden administration are from the government But private sector is struggling DropBox layoffs latest example (announced layoffs) Questionable whether this will affect voting because its come so late in the news cycle Voters might be more affected by inflation and jobs Prime Rate is 8% This rate determines bond rates Bank unrealized losses are crazy This is worse than in 2008 Buffett war
October 25 2024 Jason took Chamath’s sweater 🙂 and everything else 😉 Next to Sacks’s house 🙂 Friedberg’s moderating because Jason’s traveling AllIn Holiday Party! Sacks doesn’t want to come - he likes celebrating the pandemic 6 months a year 😛 Markets Bonds are falling Gold is going up SP500 is also going up BTC is also up US dollar is strong Seems markets are predicting a Trump win from a toss up election Perception that Trump plan will drive better economic growth than the Harris plan Trillions of dollars are moving because they’re predicting a Trump win BTC and Gold go up because of inflation hedge Paul Tudor Jones Long gold, BTC, commodities zero fixed income “all roads lead to inflation” Doesn’t want to own treasuries apparently Even Stan Druckemiller is apparently short US treasuries 20% of his portfolio or something Market doesn’t think inflation is whipped Interest on national debt has gone parabolic 20-25