Skip to main content

Posts

All In Interview - Scott Bessent - Recap and Notes - December 22 2025

December 22 2025 Budget Deficit - goal was 3% Came down from 1.8T to 1.78T (estimated was 2.0T which would have been much worse) 40% of government spending occurred in the 4th quarter of 2024 during Biden administration trying to convince voters to their side Projecting $200-$300B contraction Year nominal growth of 6% Hoping to get it down to mid 5s Tariffs Alan Greenspan did a great job in the 90s and during Clinton years economy was roaring Folks were even worried there wouldn’t be enough government debt to service some financial actors SF Fed with 150 years of data shows that tariffs are disinflationary and do not cause inflation (see study) Tariff policy is part of national security Fentanyl imports dropping by putting pressure on China Trump retaliated to Chinese rare earth tariffs with his own tariffs Chinese won’t stop producing because of tariffs - their economy is based on volume Current tariffs is to cause a rebalancing of the economy - over time it shou...
Recent posts

All In Podcast Episode 256 Recap and Notes December 31 2025

December 31 2025 Minnesota Fraud Apparently its been a long time issue Jeff Baillon investigated this issue about a decade ago Other fraud investigations and issues later on in similar cases 100s of millions of dollars in fraud reported across multiple cases Nick Shirley joins the show Started out as YouTuber in high school Claims YouTube would demonetize if he had political content Claims no big backing - he is independent Started on this Minnesota fraud story recently Hasn’t thought through about his legal safety on these issues so far Learned to do door-to-door salesmanship throughout his life Mormon upbringing Youngest brother Even the judges let the fraudsters go They set aside jury convictions Minnesota CCAP - state administered program but largely funded by Federal funds Nick’s work is almost like a decentralized DOGE - exposing the government fraud The country is being eaten alive by all this fraud, waste and abuse Autis...

All In Podcast Episode 255 Recap and Notes December 19 2025

December 19 2025 Bernie vs AI Decel pitch Proposing moratorium on new data centers so “democracy” can catch up This would be the biggest own goal ever He wants us to become like Europe (that has half the share of global GDP that they had 30 years ago) He just wants to stop all progress Capitalism might lead to unequal distribution of wealth but Socialism ALWAYS leads to equal distribution of poverty and misery Jury’s still out on AI - only Nvidia is making money - everyone has put a lot of capital at risk AI is just the new lightning rod for fear so politicians can drive fear in the conversation People are justified in asking questions about AI effects - job loss, electricity prices, etc while the AI companies are circle jerking capital around We should invest like Andrew Carnegie built 2500 libraries - so people can feel part of the progress Wider Anti-AI sentiment issue Vanguard study debunks AI job loss doomer narrative As you make workers more productive, the...

All In Podcast Episode 254 Recap and Notes December 12 2025

December 12 2025 Tucker Carlson returns to the show White House Holiday Party recap - Sacks, Chamath got shoutouts, Pod got shoutout Paramount vs Netflix bidding war for Warner Bros Netflix offer accepted Paramount back with bigger counter offer Business deal vs Cultural deal Question over whether Trump should involve himself in anyway Question about media consolidation Concerns about censorship Rise of Nick Fuentes Might have got on the radar as backlash to Ben Shapiro’s efforts to censure him He is another iteration of identity politics Seems like a talented broadcaster America First vs MAGA vs America Only Should a democratically elected government lookout first for its citizens or an alternative? Is there a coordinated campaign to amplify polarizing content? Seems the bots/accounts that are amplifying this are originating from many foreign countries One could conclude that there is a deep inorganic effort to put him on the front page of the news ...

All In Podcast Episode 253 Recap and Notes December 5 2025

December 5 2025 OpenAI Code Red More competitors doing well Anthropic beating them in enterprise revenue Google coming for them OpenAI leading consumer, but Anthropic leading enterprise and API Sign of vibrant and dynamic competitive market Google did this a couple of years ago and now Gemini is good Google did this with Project Canada way back when Microsoft launched Bing This worked for the US with the Manhattan Project Tried and tested tactic - responding to an impending threat Sam deserves credit for doing this - need to treat situations seriously Clearly the ecosystem is very competitive 5 different companies ChatGPT - leading in consumer Anthropic - best coding assistant xAI - best at current events Meta has deep pockets Google doing really well with Gemini Goldilocks scenario - lots of competition and lots of growth Competition is what brings out the best in the American system ChatGPT decline in market share is increasing ...

All In Interview - Molly Bloom - Recap and Notes - November 26 2025

November 26 2025 Molly’s Game insights Jason not really invited by her ever - he claims he did get an invite World class skier - injured during college so moved to LA to explore Got into poker through a chance opportunity - recognized the opportunity and capitalized on it Access to any part of higher society through this $10K to $50K buyin in her LA game Someone in LA (speculation about who) - took over her game So she moved to New York $250K buyin in her NY games $10M on the table at times Raised in a competitive environment by her father with 2 other super successful brothers Got involved with folks from Brighton Beach, etc - folks who were involved with the Russian mob, and there were folks who claimed to be with the Italian mob who attacked her Apparently some of those folks might have been arrested in the mob shakedown a few days later She dropped her standards about who she let in the game She started taking a cut from the pots (casinos are licensed to do this but...

All In Podcast Episode 252 Recap and Notes November 21 2025

November 21 2025 Besties live from the Venetian Epstein Files release 427-1 vote to release them If Trump was guilty then the material would have been out already? He is the most investigated, most litigated person out there - so why didn’t the Biden administration release the files when they were in power? One theory could be that the Dems are also culpable? Claims that there were a 1000 women victimized on the island - if true its even more horrifying than earlier thought The release of the files is about the agreements between folks in power and the folks who vote for them/want something in return? Downstream effects - JFK files, Martin Luther King files, Amelia Earhart files, UFO files, etc - hopefully Need more transparency Maybe Epstein was a spy or worked with agencies - this is speculation The big question is where did all his money come from Leon Black from Apollo apparently gave Epstein $168M for tax advice once The best estate lawyers in the US will charge $5...