All In Podcast Episode 227 Recap and Notes May 9 2025

May 9 2025

• Shiso Miami tip story
• Besties Miami event was a hit (Nico Rosberg, Sergey Brin, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Tony Robbins, Antonio Gracias)
• Phillippe Laffont from Coatue Management joins the show
• Fed holds rates steady

  • Tariff uncertainty

  • Fed is concerned about higher unemployment and higher inflation risks

  • Maybe Fed is not cutting because the economy is strong

  • News (hard data) is good and sentiment is bad

  • Fed signaled that they might step in to fix liquidity but not to just rescue equity markets for the sake of it

  • Hard data

    • Consumer spending is resilient (visa, mastercard spending)

  • Sentiment might be a lagging indicator

  • Is Fed getting too political in its response?

  • UK trade deal - will other countries also cut deals? So then Federal govt will get steady revenue stream - it can help them cut taxes - so its a dynamic system - so the Fed is waiting for data maybe

    

  • False narrative that X% tariff gets fully passed onto pricing - maybe only half of that (perspective of anon large US retailer)

  • Base tariffs vs Sector tariffs

  • Trump administration seems to be using a feedback loop with talking to executives constantly

  • Tokens >> Tariffs

    • Tariffs will go - tokens will stay

  • AI use

• Google down 8% Wednesday

  • Anti-trust lawsuit by DOJ - centered around $20B search deal with Apple

  • Eddy Cue testified that they saw less search traffic and more AI traffic

  • Google has to figure out how to transition to AI chat - its much more expensive than search (ad revenue is still $200B)

  • ChatGPT is running away with AI chat market

    

  • Is Google the next IBM?

  • They have 3 great businesses - YouTube, Waymo, Cloud

  • AI is showing there will be a new index (mag7, faang, etc) - who (which companies) will be on it?

  • Google needs to take some risks - have to invest in the future

  • They will likely cut a large number of employees

  • Google management team should look ahead to the future

    • Need to look at the Eddy Cue data point aggressively

  • OpenAI is getting a lot of talent (Fidji Simo leaving Instacart to join as CEO of apps as latest example)

  • Google can do better job serving ads

  • Larry and Sergey have to impose their will to make the changes that are needed the most

• New Mag 7?
  • Maybe 25 companies?
  • So many private companies - SpaceX, Stripe, OpenAI - why? Maybe cost of going public is too high
    • Private markets have become very sophisticated
  • Anti-large companies sentiment has really hurt investment in small companies
    • No acquisitions allowed so folks just invest in large companies
  • Can’t have systems that cap the upside
  • Bundling is not good
• VC future

  • Europe, Canada on the downswing because they don’t have a good environment for risk capital

  • Exit environment is bad again

    

  • IPO market

    
    • How is post 2021 worse than 2004-2006, 2013 etc?
      • This is Lina Khan’s legacy - waterfall effect of not returning capital to all the players in the business - she ruined the VC market
      • Rich people in America - their wealth would go to foundations - Europe the money would go down to generations
• Interval fund
  • Democratization of tech investing
  • Inspired by Berkshire Hathaway model (which is roughly equal parts private, public and cash)