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All In Podcast Episode 227 Recap and Notes May 9 2025

May 9 2025

  • Shiso Miami tip story
  • Besties Miami event was a hit (Nico Rosberg, Sergey Brin, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Tony Robbins, Antonio Gracias)
  • Phillippe Laffont from Coatue Management joins the show
  • Fed holds rates steady

    • Tariff uncertainty

    • Fed is concerned about higher unemployment and higher inflation risks

    • Maybe Fed is not cutting because the economy is strong

    • News (hard data) is good and sentiment is bad

    • Fed signaled that they might step in to fix liquidity but not to just rescue equity markets for the sake of it

    • Hard data

      • Consumer spending is resilient (visa, mastercard spending)

    • Sentiment might be a lagging indicator

    • Is Fed getting too political in its response?

    • UK trade deal - will other countries also cut deals? So then Federal govt will get steady revenue stream - it can help them cut taxes - so its a dynamic system - so the Fed is waiting for data maybe

    • False narrative that X% tariff gets fully passed onto pricing - maybe only half of that (perspective of anon large US retailer)

    • Base tariffs vs Sector tariffs

    • Trump administration seems to be using a feedback loop with talking to executives constantly

    • Tokens >> Tariffs

      • Tariffs will go - tokens will stay

    • AI use

  • Google down 8% Wednesday

    • Anti-trust lawsuit by DOJ - centered around $20B search deal with Apple

    • Eddy Cue testified that they saw less search traffic and more AI traffic

    • Google has to figure out how to transition to AI chat - its much more expensive than search (ad revenue is still $200B)

    • ChatGPT is running away with AI chat market

    • Is Google the next IBM?

    • They have 3 great businesses - YouTube, Waymo, Cloud

    • AI is showing there will be a new index (mag7, faang, etc) - who (which companies) will be on it?

    • Google needs to take some risks - have to invest in the future

    • They will likely cut a large number of employees

    • Google management team should look ahead to the future

      • Need to look at the Eddy Cue data point aggressively

    • OpenAI is getting a lot of talent (Fidji Simo leaving Instacart to join as CEO of apps as latest example)

    • Google can do better job serving ads

    • Larry and Sergey have to impose their will to make the changes that are needed the most

  • New Mag 7?
    • Maybe 25 companies?
    • So many private companies - SpaceX, Stripe, OpenAI - why? Maybe cost of going public is too high
      • Private markets have become very sophisticated
    • Anti-large companies sentiment has really hurt investment in small companies
      • No acquisitions allowed so folks just invest in large companies
    • Can’t have systems that cap the upside
    • Bundling is not good
  • VC future

    • Europe, Canada on the downswing because they don’t have a good environment for risk capital

    • Exit environment is bad again

    • IPO market

      • How is post 2021 worse than 2004-2006, 2013 etc?
        • This is Lina Khan’s legacy - waterfall effect of not returning capital to all the players in the business - she ruined the VC market
        • Rich people in America - their wealth would go to foundations - Europe the money would go down to generations
  • Interval fund
    • Democratization of tech investing
    • Inspired by Berkshire Hathaway model (which is roughly equal parts private, public and cash)

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