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All In Podcast Episode 225 Recap and Notes April 25 2025

April 25 2025

  • Jason out - he’s at Knicks game in Detroit
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin joins the show
  • Trump Rally vs Bessent Put?
    • Put is usually when treasury (tarp etc) or Fed buys maybe bonds/treasuries
    • If market selloff delegitimizes Trump does that mean a market rally gives him unconditional credit?
    • Clearly Trump/Bessent will not let global economy grind to a halt
    • Trump tariffs seem like a negotiating point
    • Developing nation status vs developed nation status - China has been able to leverage that with tariffs, etc and exploit rare earth situation
      • China owns ~90% of rare earth processing
    • Monsanto example in India with price fixing
    • Ken Griffin skeptical of US economic environment and favorability
    • Trumpian approach is “controversy elevates message”
    • If China controls inputs to all important technologies - then US needs to stand up and figure out how to push back
    • Apple is apparently moving iPhone sourcing to India from China
    • Security first, then Trade
    • US-India relationship is therefore aligned because both view China as the biggest adversary
    • India has educated population, lower labor costs than China
    • India - build infrastructure
    • India buying oil from Russia is smart - its in their interest
    • India is tough place to invest - works differently from Western economic model
    • Now Russia is #3 so US should be making friends with them - just like they did with China decades ago when they were #3 (Nixon and Kissinger made a deal with Mao even though he had reportedly much more blood on his hands than current Putin regime)
    • Spreading American style democracy world wide might be a good intention but failure rate is too high - Afghanistan, Iraq, etc
    • Crimea locals apparently prefer Moscow to Kiev
    • Why hasn’t Ukraine deal been done yet - is it Zelenskyy’s fault?
  • Alphabet earnings - Google is killing it
    • Dividends + share buyback is almost like 4% per year yield on just owning the stock

    • $90B revenue is incredible

    • Amazing resiliency

    • They also own 10% of SpaceX

    • ChatGPT is a risk - its used so much more

    • Google innovator’s dilemma with 10 blue links vs AI interface - its tough because people are building new habits where they use ChatGPT for their questions

    • Sometimes you need to let someone impose their will to make difficult product decisions

  • Elon back to Tesla
    • Can’t spend a lot of time on DOGE (he’s an SGE - so maybe only has ~130 days)
    • Efficiencies he found have to be followed through by Congress
    • Issue with Democracy is that eventually you realize you can vote yourself all the money
    • Seems like only Tesla bull case right now is FSD
  • China’s thorium nuclear reactor
    • Claim they can power China for 60000 years
    • Molten salt reactor
    • Can have very distributed energy capacity
    • US didn’t get this done because of regulations
    • Thorium doesn’t need to go through a refinement process

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