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All In Podcast Episode 226 Recap and Notes May 2 2025

May 2 2025

  • Not everyone can afford private jets
  • No Friedberg 😟
  • Aaron Levie and Ryan Petersen join the show
  • Chamath and Sacks are part of a new club in DC
  • Trump first 100 days
    • Hard to react for outsiders - OODA (observe, orient, decide and act) loop is hard to even do
      • So many changes so fast
    • Tariffs has been hard to deal with
    • AI has been very positive (thanks to Sacks)
    • Chamath gives B+ overall score
      • Good
        • Border illegal crossings are down
        • Investment in US
      • Controversial
        • Tariffs not so bad - stock market and interest rate markets haven’t been hurt that much
      • Bad
        • Documents (epstein files, mlk files, jfk files (redacted))
        • Tariffs communication and back and forth
        • Markets have been let to be too volatile
    • Crypto also seems to be tightening up
    • Wokeism and DEI have also been hurt
    • Reprivatization of the economy is a work in progress
    • Trump has made good progress on ending the war in Ukraine
      • NYT article shows America was very involved in Ukraine war
  • Tariff impacts
    • 60% decline in shipping from China to US!
    • Businesses having to deal with lot of rule changes
    • Tariffs raising prices - Amazon, Temu showing surcharges
    • Seems like the administration is doing Chaos Monkey on the economy and see what breaks
    • China has boxed US into bad positions - US doesn’t have strategic optionality to make the correct moral decision for the US
    • There is an alternative smoother path that could have been done to get to this situation
      • Where were they for 25 years?
  • 2025 is the year of AI agents
    • OpenAI wants to charge $20K/month for AI agents
    • Manus AI agents
      • Benchmark invested in the company
      • Nice demo
    • MCP framework growing
    • Flexport is also using AI additively - its helping them make calls to truck drivers, etc
    • 90% of AI use in the future will be things we don’t do today
    • Agents are real but the reliability is not production ready
    • Budgets need to move from experimentation to mainline production
    • Dimensions of improvement
      • Models/algorithms (llm, reasoning model, deep research, etc)
      • Chips (better chips, hopper to blackwell, etc)
      • Networked GPU clusters (100k, 300k etc - millions in the future?)
    • Box did an eval
      • Grok3 was the best
      • New techniques - run it through the model multiple times, chunk it up, etc
    • Polymarket poll says Google might have best AI model by the end of 2025
    • AI coding has great progress because there is a great rapid feedback loop (code works or not)
    • New applications are much more token intensive
    • Will models adopted by Govt now become source of truth? Because they are from the government

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