May 16 2025
- Ben Shapiro joins the show
- Phil Hellmuth apology
- AllIn poker tournament in Vegas
- Trump Middle east trip
- $600B investment commitment from Saudi Arabia
- Defense partnership
- Business delegation
- $200B from Qatar
- Removed sanctions against Syria
- Speech against american intervention and forever wars
- credited new generation of middle east leadership
- Investment and business deals have strategic benefits
- US should also have strings attached to deals being made - both sides should have leverage
- Groq deals in Saudi Arabia
- $400M plane gift from Qatar (has been given to other countries before too)
- Deal was it would go to Presidential library of Trump
- So fair to raise eyebrows
- Pam Bondi was also a foreign registered agent of Qatar for lobbying
- Unnecessary distraction - appearance of impropriety can scuttle important agenda points for economy
- China through Belten Road 1.0 eroded American hegemony worldwide
- $200B investment in Saudi and Qatar over the last few decades
- US making relationships with Saudi Arabia is important
- Saudi has 4B people within 1000 mile radius
- $2T investment from these countries into US is a change in the region
- Trump speech is a sea change in attitude towards Middle East
- American traditional view has been that our way is the right way and other ways are wrong
- So his speech is a sign of respect towards these countries
- US no longer has the moral high ground
- Less judgement and more engagement
- Trump is not isolationist - making trillion dollar deals with these countries
- Iran caved within a short time after this full court press
- Fair to be skeptical of these deals or the outcomes we can get
- UAE and Saudi might be best places in the world for putting in net new capital
- China trade deal
- US 145 → 30
- China 125 → 10
- Market loved the news
- Polymarket prediction of US recession has dropped to 37% now (from ~60% over a month ago)
- Persistent tariffs will have an effect - remains to be seen how good/bad it is
- GOP and Big beautiful Bill
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Friedberg hates the house bill
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Annual deficit could be adding $2.5T
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$2T a year in interest on our debt
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DOGE can’t save much - only ~$300B per year
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Congress needs to act
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We should not add new programs
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SNAP program has exploded in size - $60B from 2019 to $120B now - they are cutting $30B from it now
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No taxes on tips can create loopholes
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Sad that we didn’t return to pre-pandemic spending
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All new spending should be line item-ed out - not sure that will happen
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A deficit to GDP of 8% per year is insane - its like Argentina situation
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We are in the debt death spiral
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Who pays all the taxes
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But can’t panic - when you owe the bank a million, its your problem, when you owe the bank a billion, its their problem
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Could monetize American balance sheet (is it ~$100T?)
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Scott Bessent 333 plan - 3% inflation, 3% GDP growth, 3% deficit to GDP ratio (also Ray Dalio 333 plan) - would be great if it works out
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Either cut spending or agree you want the country to go bankrupt
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- Montana bans cell-based meat
- Joins Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, etc
- Drug price lowering EO from Trump
- PBMs
- China might be overtaking the US in clinical trial reform
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