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All In Podcast Episode 229 Recap and Notes May 23 2025

May 23 2025

  • All In Summit
  • Bond market chaos

    • Weak bond demand

    • 10 year yields spiked

    • Govt sells bonds to fund its activities

    • Crazy debt projections 😟

    • Market does not want to buy debt from government

    • Big beautiful bill is the anti-DOGE

    • Worst case for financial situation

    • Bill passed 215-214, 1 person slept on the floor and didn’t vote

    • Gold and BTC spiked

    • US downgraded

    • Bill favors traditional republicans and traditional democrats

    • Energy prices will spike, AI energy generation will be harder

    • Fed might increase interest rates

    • Republicans abandoned DOGE

    • Tax cuts are good at least

    • Better border security

    • What is happening in Japan currency/bond markets might lead to $1T sale of US treasuries

      • This could devalue the dollar

    • This bill will hurt the US economy

    • US politicians don’t want austerity

    • President doesn’t have enough power over spending

    • People vote for Republicans to cut taxes and cut spending - they did 1 out of 2 this time

  • Google I/O
    • AI mode
    • Ultra pricing with ~$250/mo
    • Google seems to be embracing the old Google Labs effort - brought it back last year after it went away in 2011
    • Just need to embrace AI shift sooner rather than later
    • Don’t get flat footed caught by OpenAI
    • OpenAI buys Jony Ive’s io
  • AI Diplomacy in the Middle East
    • Elite leadership in these countries seem to be visionary and western educated
    • These countries can spend a lot of money
    • Biden administration hampered their efforts towards AI progress
    • Sacks helped establish new framework
      • Matching AI spend from these countries in US and middle east
      • 80% of compute has to come from american companies
    • Jensen Huang is against export controls
    • These countries will invest more over the next 30 years than university endowments and pension plans, etc
      • All the more weird that Biden admin alienated these people
    • Important to box out China
  • CRISPR breakthrough
    • Unique case of a recently born baby that inherited same mutation from both parents - could have been fatal
    • Affects CPS1 protein
    • Inherited both As instead of Gs
    • Had to change the A to a G
    • Used guide RNAs
    • Cured the child (so far - fingers crossed)
  • American energy production

    • Abundance axes

      • Food
      • Automation
      • Longevity
      • Energy

    • If we add 1TW of energy per year then we don’t need to worry about the debt

    • China is adding an entire US every 18 months - additional to their grid (solar, hydro, etc)

    • This graph is more important than the budget deficit graph

    • Robotics will explode

    • This generation’s manhattan and apollo project is energy

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