All the crap you never needed

May 23 2025 All In Summit Bond market chaos Weak bond demand 10 year yields spiked Govt sells bonds to fund its activities Crazy debt projections 😟 Market does not want to buy debt from government Big beautiful bill is the anti-DOGE Worst case for financial situation Bill passed 215-214, 1 person slept on the floor and didn’t vote Gold and BTC spiked US downgraded Bill favors traditional republicans and traditional democrats Energy prices will spike, AI energy generation will be harder Fed might increase interest rates Republicans abandoned DOGE Tax cuts are good at least Better border security What is happening in Japan currency/bond markets might lead to $1T sale of US treasuries This could devalue the dollar This bill will hurt the US economy US politicians don’t want austerity President doesn’t have enough power over spending People vote for Republicans to cut taxes and cut spending - they did 1 out of 2 this tim...

May 16 2025 Ben Shapiro joins the show Phil Hellmuth apology AllIn poker tournament in Vegas Trump Middle east trip $600B investment commitment from Saudi Arabia Defense partnership Business delegation $200B from Qatar Removed sanctions against Syria Speech against american intervention and forever wars credited new generation of middle east leadership Investment and business deals have strategic benefits US should also have strings attached to deals being made - both sides should have leverage Groq deals in Saudi Arabia $400M plane gift from Qatar (has been given to other countries before too) Deal was it would go to Presidential library of Trump So fair to raise eyebrows Pam Bondi was also a foreign registered agent of Qatar for lobbying Unnecessary distraction - appearance of impropriety can scuttle important agenda points for economy China through Belten Road 1.0 eroded American hegemony worldwide $200B investment in Saudi and Qatar over the last few decad...

May 9 2025 Shiso Miami tip story Besties Miami event was a hit (Nico Rosberg, Sergey Brin, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Tony Robbins, Antonio Gracias) Phillippe Laffont from Coatue Management joins the show Fed holds rates steady Tariff uncertainty Fed is concerned about higher unemployment and higher inflation risks Maybe Fed is not cutting because the economy is strong News (hard data) is good and sentiment is bad Fed signaled that they might step in to fix liquidity but not to just rescue equity markets for the sake of it Hard data Consumer spending is resilient (visa, mastercard spending) Sentiment might be a lagging indicator Is Fed getting too political in its response? UK trade deal - will other countries also cut deals? So then Federal govt will get steady revenue stream - it can help them cut taxes - so its a dynamic system - so the Fed is waiting for data maybe False narrative that X% tariff gets fully passed onto pricing - maybe only half...

May 2 2025 Not everyone can afford private jets No Friedberg 😟 Aaron Levie and Ryan Petersen join the show Chamath and Sacks are part of a new club in DC Trump first 100 days Hard to react for outsiders - OODA (observe, orient, decide and act) loop is hard to even do So many changes so fast Tariffs has been hard to deal with AI has been very positive (thanks to Sacks) Chamath gives B+ overall score Good Border illegal crossings are down Investment in US Controversial Tariffs not so bad - stock market and interest rate markets haven’t been hurt that much Bad Documents (epstein files, mlk files, jfk files (redacted)) Tariffs communication and back and forth Markets have been let to be too volatile Crypto also seems to be tightening up Wokeism and DEI have also been hurt Reprivatization of the economy is a work in progress Trump has made good progress on ending the war in Ukraine NYT article shows America was very involved in Ukraine war Tariff imp...

April 25 2025 Jason out - he’s at Knicks game in Detroit Andrew Ross Sorkin joins the show Trump Rally vs Bessent Put? Put is usually when treasury (tarp etc) or Fed buys maybe bonds/treasuries If market selloff delegitimizes Trump does that mean a market rally gives him unconditional credit? Clearly Trump/Bessent will not let global economy grind to a halt Trump tariffs seem like a negotiating point Developing nation status vs developed nation status - China has been able to leverage that with tariffs, etc and exploit rare earth situation China owns ~90% of rare earth processing Monsanto example in India with price fixing Ken Griffin skeptical of US economic environment and favorability Trumpian approach is “controversy elevates message” If China controls inputs to all important technologies - then US needs to stand up and figure out how to push back Apple is apparently moving iPhone sourcing to India from China Security first, then Trade US-India relationship is th...

April 18 2025 Last episode reached #4 in the world Friedberg won latest jeopardy round Tim Dillon joins the show Nvidia H20 export controls Export controls vs tariffs Some of this dates back to 2019 Trump administration with lithography controls Biden administration added more chips to the controls So Nvidia worked on a different chip that would be compliant These measures might make China beat US in AI (Gavin Baker and Bill Gurley, etc) China has already demonstrated they can build advanced chips (like those used in Huawei, etc) How much is China getting from other regions? Is this similar to the case of some TSMC chip that showed up in a Huawei AI processor? Trump vs Harvard Administration targeting policies and Harvard funding Harvard is now getting a reputation that they discriminate in their admissions What is the point of providing tax benefits to these private universities when they are openly ideological? Harvard has $53.2B endowment ...