November 21 2025
- Besties live from the Venetian
- Epstein Files release
- 427-1 vote to release them
- If Trump was guilty then the material would have been out already? He is the most investigated, most litigated person out there - so why didn’t the Biden administration release the files when they were in power?
- One theory could be that the Dems are also culpable?
- Claims that there were a 1000 women victimized on the island - if true its even more horrifying than earlier thought
- The release of the files is about the agreements between folks in power and the folks who vote for them/want something in return?
- Downstream effects - JFK files, Martin Luther King files, Amelia Earhart files, UFO files, etc - hopefully
- Need more transparency
- Maybe Epstein was a spy or worked with agencies - this is speculation
- The big question is where did all his money come from
- Leon Black from Apollo apparently gave Epstein $168M for tax advice once
- The best estate lawyers in the US will charge $5M-$10M!!!!
- Even JCal is named in Epstein’s notes, etc (he met him at TED conferences)
- Tether stable coin
- Successful business
- 500M people using Tether worldwide
- User base growing 30M people a quarter
- So this is tied to US dollar hegemony
- Clarity bill causing huge fight between banks and these stable coin issuers
- Banks don’t want these guys to be able to pay interest to consumers - coz that’s their interest business model
- Sacks deserves a lot of credit for helping these crypto companies to clean it all up
- Right now its a 90%+ margin business
- High margin businesses are ripe for competition
- NVidia blowout quarter
- Product sold out everywhere
- Burry seems to be completely wrong in his argument (Friedberg rebuttal with by the book reading of GAAP and how value creation or useful life works of an asset works)
- We don’t have to complicate this - if the older chips are still being used and still generating revenue, its still worth it to use it and run the business on it
- All of the accounting is available on the cash flow statement, etc
- Google Gemini 3
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Polymarket has 89% chance of Google ending 2025 as the top LLM provider
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Apparently its all trained on TPU - so huge TPU success
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Disaggregated decode era is here
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Gemini share went from 8 → 16% in a month!
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This might be Google cannibalizing themselves instead of letting the market cannibalize them (search)
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Friedberg predicts Huawei is going to be able to leverage new lithography technology coming out of China (early 2026 call)
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- Investing your own money vs LP capital
- Chamath lost $400M on Relativity Space
- Higher highs and lower lows investing his own money
- If you invest other people’s money, you have a responsibility to return money back to them
- Friedberg’s journey to becoming a CEO again (now Ohalo) after deciding he wouldn’t do it again after Climate Corp
- Alan Keating joins the show
- Ran high stakes poker games for many years
- Seed investor in PolyMarket
- Playing poker on TV
- Mastering fear - people make bad decisions when they are afraid
- Elements of super forecasting in his investing decision making - reflecting on the decision making
- Phil Hellmuth joins the show
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