July 7 2022
- Laura Piana showoff by Chamath
- Twinning with Sacks!
- Friedberg at secret conference
- Inflation
- entrenched inflation
- Historic number of job openings - 11M for 6 straight months
- 2 jobs available for every 1 person who needs a job
- That means those openings aren’t paying enough
- Or they are incentivized to stay on the sidelines
- Openings could be indicative of opposite of what Fed is saying
- Labor market could be 2 separate markets:
- White collar professionals: companies slamming breaks and unemployment there
- Blue collar - lots of jobs there
- 10% off the peak as far as participation
- Could take pressure off inflation if people participate
- 4.27M people quit jobs every month - pre-pandemic it was 3M per month
- It means people think they can get another job
- or YOLO
- Or - there’s a new economy emerging
- Because of lockdowns and pandemic and $2T money printing there’s a fast shift to new kinds of jobs that people want to do - from retail and restaurants to new kinds of gig jobs
- So not sure these kinds of jobs will come back
- White collar and manufacturing fell - hospitality and retail went up
- Day before lockdowns economy was normal, growing 2% per year - then shutdown, factory idle, people get $2T to stay at home, now 12-18 months later factories open again, rubber, etc supplies are not there and people are willing to pay more with their stimulus money - it seems like a supply side issue
- By end of year - 30M sqft of vacant office space in SF - 40% (75M total)
- Even other places which are not as tech heavy and crime ridden etc will lose their leases over the following years to come
- Another problem will be new leases or lack of leases means that buildings wont have enough revenue and so landlords will default on their Debt Service Coverage Ratio - DSCR - so Banks will own the buildings - they don’t want to own them
- Changing to housing even with housing crisis will not happen because developers don’t have capital and city govt won’t cooperate
- Net international migration has dropped - 1M fewer people coming here legally since 5 years
- Biggest drop in consumer sentiment in 40 years
- 60% of country thinks we are in a recession
- People are only spending now because of 2 years of pent up demand
- Average gas spending per household is $5K/year
- People used to spend 33% on housing, 12-13% on gas, 16% on food, etc - personal spending levels are going to go up over income levels
- Some segment of the economy is over spending and majority of economy is unable to spend
- Asset values will drop after demand side recession happens
- Equities will drop
- Housing will drop soon
- Recession is when your neighbor loses their job and Depression is when you lose your job
- These guys were right to sell in November 2021 like Elon and Bezos did
- Facebook is a great company but suffering
- Turkey discovers 694 million mt of Rare earth
- Skeptical
- Beginning of the end of Woke Green movement - we need dual track investing - can’t ignore carbon economy while we wait for Nuclear and Green energy to come online
- This is markets at work
- They pivoted because of Putin
- Russia can cut oil supply and hurt world economy because of no supply and capacity anywhere else
- We only have margin of 1M barrels of oil world wide
- Dutch farmers revolt
- Humans use 2-6% of our energy to produce Ammonia
- Too much of ammonia lying on the ground becomes Nitrous oxide which is 300 times worse than CO2 as green house gas
- Need to regulate ammonia and nitrous oxide
- Netherlands is world’s 3rd largest dairy exporter - they have too many densely populated cows, they pee and that becomes ammonia
- Same problem in Gulf of Mexico - hypoxy - fish are dead
- Friedberg has 3 companies that are working on solving this problem - they can extract nitrogen from the atmosphere so you don’t need ammonia
- Govt said it will hurt livelihood of ag producers
- There is a lot of class prejudice - these people don’t live with or understand the people whose livelihoods are affected - they look down on these people and think they are virtuous and don’t care about these people and instead of giving them a soft landing by providing tax incentives and giving them a gradual plan to transition to use new technologies
- Top ESG manager had best performance because of Conoco Phillips, Exxon, etc
- Rules are crap because it bans weapons, etc
- Biden’s approval rating is low
- 38% - lowest at this point in presidency
- Biden is crazy with his tweet about gas stations - attacking mom and pop people running gas stations - owned by immigrants with 2% profit margins, they don’t make money on gas anyway, its from snacks, etc
- Biden should fire whoever wrote the tweet
- Bezos tweet back is awesome
- Jcal doing a Windy was awesome - “why would he do that?”
Comments