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All In Podcast Episode 136 Recap and Notes Jul 9 2023

July 9 2023



  • No JCal - BG in
    • No producer
    • Besties hacking the pod together
  • Meta launches Threads
    • 30 million app downloads overnight
    • Almost like a Twitter clone
    • According to rumors they built this in 6-9 months with 20 people
    • Meta pace of innovation is really high right now
    • Facebook is heavy on videos and pictures, but light on text - so this could be a way to get that
    • Facebook invented photo tagging and newsfeed
    • So they need something new again - Threads is a copy, has nothing new yet
    • TikTok did well because it was fundamentally new
    • Standalone it isn’t great but unless it integrates into Instagram
    • 30million signups is 3% conversion rate from 1B users in instagram
  • Chat AI interest in decline
    • ChatGPT usage is falling - apparently also Bard
    • Are people bored or did students stop using it because they’re on holiday?
    • These are early days - things will change rapidly
  • Fed meeting minutes
    • Might raise rates later in the year
    • 450K new jobs created - ADP jobs report
    • 1 year ago people didn’t want to work because of covid and getting stimulus checks
    • So we might be getting a soft landing?
    • US might have done the best job of developed nations of keeping inflation under control
    • Druckenmiller predicted hard landing in second half of the year - lets see if that happens
    • Real estate folks donate to politicians apparently
    • Britain is now the only major economy that has rising inflation
      • Losing out on benefits of being part of Europe
    • But Germany economy is also in trouble as well as wider Europe - but they don’t have same levels of inflation
  • Florida immigration jobs status
    • This is going to hit lots of undocumented immigrants
    • Apparently 7 million illegal immigrants have come through the southern border since Biden entered office
    • Balance between labor requirements and immigration
    • Average low skilled immigration household gets $30K from govt in assistance - and pay only $10K in taxes
      • $20K gap
      • Does the economy grow by > $20K?
    • Can’t have open immigration policy with generous benefits policy
    • Admitting low skilled immigrants adds wage pressure for Americans who are at the lowest end of the ladder
    • Its unfair to Americans to be held hostage - no border control until comprehensive immigration reform
    • 40-50% of SV unicorns’ founders are immigrants or first generation americans - so legal high skilled immigration is good
    • Canada jumped on the opportunity to get H1Bs
  • Chinese Balloon issue
    • The correction was a back page correction for a front page story
    • The balloon was innocuous

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