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All In Podcast Episode 141 Recap and Notes August 11 2023

August 11 2023



  • Friedberg haircut stories

  • Chamath out (probably first time!)

  • Bill Gurley doing some angel investing and working on a book

    • Happy to do his dream job of investing, etc
    • Advice
      • Study history of your space
      • Networking like crazy
      • Learned from Danny Meyer’s story
        • Restaurauteur, Shake Shack founder
        • Read Setting the Table
        • Union Square Cafe, Gramercy Tavern
    • Friedberg
      • Read Walter Isaacson bio of Jobs
        • Immediately helped him (use/learn from his management style)
        • His book on Elon coming out soon
          • JCal and Sacks were interviewed for it
          • He was there for the transition to Twitter
          • Rocket launches, everything in between
    • Sacks writing a book on how to create, start, run software companies
      • Sacks read Good to Great and was a little confused by the message
    • Chamath dials in
    • Alexander Hamilton, Phil Knight (Shoe dog?), The Man in the Arena
    • Akira Kurosawa
    • Born standing up
    • On Writing - Stephen King bio
      • Great to listen to before writing a book
      • He wrote the novella that became Shawshank
    • Malcolm X
    • Seven Samurai best film to watch if you’re a startup founder
    • George Lucas, Scorcese and Copolla were all disciples of Kurosawa
    • Jason recommends cold plunge
    • Kurosawa was inspired by Shakespeare
      • Hidden fortress was inspiration for Star Wars
      • Steven Spielberg owns the rights to High and Low
      • Breaking Bad also inspired by one of Kurosawa’s characters
        • Ikiru?

  • Series As

    • Median round is now 7 figures raise - which is down huge from a year ago
    • Pre-money valuation down 40M
    • AI deals still higher valuations
      • Like 2021
    • Series A is competitive, not maybe crowded
    • VC market peaked in Q4 2021 and kept going down through 2022 and bottomed out in Q1 2023 and now pace of deployment has stabilized at a pre-pandemic level
    • Seed makes the most sense for AI startups
    • VC market is very hot still
      • Stock market is within 10% of all time highs
      • later stage is also hot - $500M-$600M

  • Dry powder myths

    • Classic venture fund will do 5-6 drawdowns over the 10 year period of a fund
    • Dotcom bust - Yahoo revenues were surprisingly tied up with startup funding (sold banner ads to startups who lost money)
    • PE > VCs
    • Dave Swensen model of investment

  • IPOs

    • ARM might do a big IPO (Softbank investment)
    • Instacart
    • Reddit went dark maybe
    • Stripe in line
    • There were more private unicorns than public tech companies worth > $1B at some point of time in the recent crazy environment
    • IPOs are coming
    • ByteDance, Databricks, etc will also probably go public
    • University endowments make a lot of money
      • mainly during ZIRP environment
    • Worst software recession
    • Watch Margin Call

  • Cycles in venture capital

    • QQQ is the best (best is QQQ top 10 reconstitute)



  • Maui wildfires

    • Very sad
    • Southern Iran - temperature hit 155 degrees
    • Saudi Arabia and Dubai - 130 degrees
    • Texas has biggest renewable energy percentage of any state - ahead of California

  • Macro economy

    • Market thinks rates will go down soon

    • Crazy scary economic picture



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