All the crap you never needed

All In Interview - Graham Allison - March 9 2026 (from NotebookLM) I. The US-Israel-Iran Conflict Current State: High uncertainty ("fog of war"); worsened by unpredictable leaders like Trump and Netanyahu ("fog machines"). Military Execution vs. Post-War Reality: US/Israeli military and intelligence capabilities are unmatched, but history (Iraq, Afghanistan) proves regime change is extremely difficult. Breaking things is easy; building is hard. "Bibi's War": Allison compares Israeli PM Netanyahu to Captain Ahab (Moby Dick) due to his multi-decade obsession with destroying the Iranian regime. Allison considers himself pro-Israel but anti-Bibi, noting Netanyahu is damaging Israel's democracy and alienating young American voters. Trump's Motivations: Erratic and impulsive rather than part of a grand strategy. He saw a tactical window to strike Iranian leaders in public. Global Ripple Effects (Unintended Consequences): Economic shockw...

March 6 2026 Emil Michael - Under Secretary of War Operational axe/Fixer/Rainmaker for Travis Kalanick at Uber Chamath having fun on Twitter Iran War US and Israel attacked Saturday Trump claims this is to nerf Iran’s ability to develop ICBMs Iran is a prodigious drone maker This likely is to hit Iran and China’s relationship China is currently projecting its lowest growth in 30 years With rising unemployment (youth especially), lower growth, higher population, they are in trouble China energy mix This could hem in China at an opportune moment to get a Grand Bargain with China Rules of Engagement have changed - they were punishing and needed to have a legal understanding - those things have changed now Drones are increasingly important in warfare, security, surveillance, golden dome He told Anthropic that if you don’t let US use the models, it will just hurt us because anyway their model is being stolen by the Chinese Jason claims he’s a moder...

March 3 2026 Ray Dalio 3rd time back Had made some good input on last appearance just when Trump was getting inaugurated Deficit was hoped to be reined in to 3% but now its 6% (deficit to gdp) Backdrop - sadly too much war and irreconciliable differences between both parties Foreign buyers will be hesitant then Dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio Geopolitical risks also there - debtor and creditor could have conflict (US/China, US/Europe even?) These kinds of cycles have happened repeatedly through history Structurally a little difficult to do DOGE kind of efforts at this stage Gold Not some precious metal that people speculate on - its the second largest currency that central banks choose to keep Distinguish wealth from money Wealth you can’t spend (buildings, etc) You have to sell it to spend Money you can spend Gold could be considered to now have reached a fair value vs being undervalued earlier Countries and people shoul...

February 27 2026 Chamath launched his own YouTube channel Claude’s hit list 3 for 3 in tanking different market sectors in February Feb 3 - Legal plugin for Claude Cowork Thomson Reuters, Legalzoom etc down Feb 20 - Claude Code Security CrowdStrike, etc down Feb 23 - Claude announces COBOL modernizing IBM down Some of this is smart finance players changing positions likely Markets are in “if” mindset vs “when” mindset - can AI models disrupt the market? So when you don’t know how to price it, you want a massive margin of safety PEs go down, Revenue multiples go down Viral Citrini AI report also might have had an effect Were there any shorters who had something to do with the article? Derek Thompson response about AI narratives being science fiction ideas is a good one Natural for market to react like this given uncertainty in future vs how reliable SaaS used to be Is there really enough consumptive capacity on the other side of AI doing eve...

February 13 2026 AI updates New study shows workers using AI work harder but burn out more Moving from task based jobs to purpose based jobs Matt Shumer article went viral - Something Big is Happening Early adopter employees will excel and replace existing tools/stacks bottom up Jason tweet to learn OpenClaw went viral Is On Prem the new Cloud? Seems this might be the best way for companies to protect themselves What about employees uploading information to the public LLMs? Even if they get caught isn’t it too late? We thought the models would improve recursively - but it seems the output is recursive Jason’s replicant infrastructure is quite sophisticated - using Opus 4.6 to orchestrate to all the Kimi agents hosted on Mac minis locally Creating central Ultron to do lot of the company’s work AWS Bedrock could be too expensive When do tokens outpace salary? Prediction Markets A billion bets on Kalshi, 700M on Polymarket, etc - hit a big high during SuperBowl ...

February 10 2026 (from NotebookLM) Early Life and Immigration CZ’s father was a professor in China who went to Canada as a visiting scholar in 1984; the family began applying for passports around 1985, a process that took several years. The family emigrated to Vancouver, Canada, in 1989, shortly after the Tiananmen Square protests; obtaining visas actually became easier post-protest. Upon arriving in Vancouver, the family lived on the UBC campus in faculty housing; CZ’s father received a small stipend, and his mother, formerly a math and history teacher, worked in a sewing factory. CZ began working at McDonald’s at age 14 to earn income, where he was paid $4.50 an hour. He describes himself as a decent coder but not a "wizard"; he had a happy adolescence with a mix of Asian and Caucasian friends. Education and Early Career CZ attended McGill University to study biology (on advice to become a doctor) but switched to Computer Science after one semester. He worked ev...

February 6 2026 Brad Gerstner joins the show Sacks enjoying Texas Easier to fix his internet in Texas than the state of California Ohalo named after seminal archaeological site Potatoes are 3rd biggest source of calories Craft Ventures is on the cap table If Jason gives personal check Friedberg will let him into the cap table But then his LPs will ask him why its not in the fund Epstein files Jason Is in the files Met Epstein at billionaires dinner Went to his house Never went to the island Exchanged some emails with him and made introductions Met Ghislaine Maxwell Jason was known as the Connector (see New Yorker profile) so he came on his radar Didn’t spend much time with him Interesting that Epstein was interested in meeting the BitCoin guys (as far back as in 2011) NY Times article on the files goes after tech Jason, Peter Thiel, Elon got more coverage in the article Reid Hoffman didn’t get as much coverage Bigger story is how he died - how come tha...

January 30 2026 Davos trip recap More business centric More American presence Trump effect Larry Fink is the new one running it so new influence Lutnick let the folks there have it on their decel agenda Climate agenda “bloom is off the rose” Great powers define the international system - not second/mid tier powers Before US intervention Europe has had a bloody war history - since 1945 there has been not as much conflict because of American influence Europe is desperate to keep US in NATO - so they are responding to Trump asking them to pay their fair share Greenland is the hot new issue - Trump took use-of-force off the table so hopefully a peaceful/reasonable solution can be negotiated Minneapolis and ICE Stephen Miller, Kristy Noem, Greg Bovino involved Trump pivots to Tom Homan Most states ICE isn’t having a problem so this issue is unique to Minnesota Minnesota has an organized resistance to ICE Media and leftists are ignoring the reality and creating...

January 25 2026 Jeremy Allaire - Circle Co Founder Chaos is a ladder Stablecoins need trust Banks are threatened Genius Act (passed in US after other countries had already passed regulations earlier) But Banks can also benefit from this Its just another payment network So a big bank is using USDC for moving their global money Tether Tax filing, reconciliation, etc could all be done more easily with USDC Money velocity increasing will help innovation accelerate because it removes friction Socialism is here Georgy Kurtz - Co Founder Crowdstrike LLMs are a scary attack vector Davos is a good place to do business They have found 100s of fake/fraud employees Its a lot easier to get someone employed than to break into the system 🙂 Claims its coming from North Korea The managers still valued the high quality of the work inspite of being informed about the potential spying 🙂 Russia is still #1 in cybersecurity risk China is right there too China is very powerfu...

January 23 2026 (from NotebookLM) Head of CMS Introduction Setting the Scene: The podcast is recording live from Davos with a picturesque background that looks like a "green screen" but is real. The hosts joke about the "virtue signaling ESG DEI executives" nearby and solar panels that aren't plugged in. Dr. Oz’s Role: Dr. Oz is introduced as the "Administrator for CMS" (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services), transitioning from being "America's Doctor" to a civil servant. Transition to Public Service & Working with Trump Motivation: Oz views himself as being in the "change business." He believes healthcare offers no luxury for delay and felt he could make a more significant impact in this role than as a TV host. He calls it the "best job" he's ever had. Trump’s Management Style: ◦ Contrary to the expectation that government requires slow consensus building, Oz describes President Trump...

January 23 2026 (from NotebookLM) Part 1: Brian Armstrong (CEO, Coinbase) – Crypto Trends & Regulation Political Climate & Regulation ◦ Davos Atmosphere: Shifted from "ESG/DEI" focus to "brass tacks" business and deal-making, largely attributed to the "Trump effect". ◦ US Administration Shift: The Biden administration was viewed as unlawfully hostile to crypto. The Trump administration is seen as pro-business/crypto, creating a legal path for the industry and aiming to make the US the "crypto capital". ◦ Global Competition: China is paying interest on CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), creating pressure for the US to repatriate capital. Banking & Stablecoins ◦ Adoption: 5 of the top 20 global banks use Coinbase for crypto infrastructure. Some banks view crypto as an "existential" threat (similar to Amazon vs. Barnes & Noble), while others see opportunity. ◦ "The Genius Act" (Legislation):...

January 22 2026 The State of the AI Race & US Leadership Current Standing: The U.S. is currently leading the global AI race. David Sacks notes that American companies continue to innovate with better models, chips, and data centers. Strategic Pillars: Michael Kratsios outlines three pillars of the U.S. strategy: Innovation: Maintaining a lead over competitors. Infrastructure: Building the necessary physical support (data centers/energy). Export: Sharing American technology with the world. Policy Shift: The speakers highlight a shift from the previous administration. President Trump’s approach promotes "permissionless innovation," contrasting with the Biden administration's executive order and "diffusion rule," which added hundreds of pages of regulations that treated AI as a highly regulated industry,,. Infrastructure, Energy, and Economics Demand vs. Bubble: Sacks dismisses fears that AI infrastructure is a bubble comparable to ...

January 22 2026 (notes from NotebookLM) Guest Context: Sarah B. Rogers Role: Rogers serves as the Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy. While traditional diplomacy involves government-to-government relationships, her role focuses on the relationship between the U.S. government and foreign publics. Modern Focus: Her portfolio has evolved with the internet to address the "information ecosystem," dealing with "disinformation," and managing the tension between American free speech values and foreign regulations. The Conflict: U.S. Free Speech vs. European Regulation Rogers and the hosts discuss a widening divide between the U.S. (focused on the First Amendment and individual conscience) and Europe (focused on "technocratic regulation" and safety). 1. The United Kingdom: The Online Safety Act (OSA) Scope: The OSA imposes age-gating and requires platforms to assess risks for "upsetting" content, even if it is legal in the U.S.. Enforceme...

 January 21 2026 Satya gave up his green card to get his wife to come to the US with him AI and knowledge workers Delegation Evals are important for AI products Bullish on AI - the pie will grow You are not a platform until the revenue on top of your platform is a multiple of your revenues - h/t Bill Gates Diffusion of AI is important - its not just good for the US - it means more value is created worldwide Azure is Microsoft’s biggest business Its all about serving tokens Thinks models will be like Databases from decades ago Databases didn’t remain just SQL, you got document dbs, NoSQL dbs, open source, etc Same will happen with models Predicts each firm will have its own model Important to keep hiring people

January 16 2026 All In invited to Davos Sacks and Jason will be there Iran Inflation is out of control recently Fluid situation - too early to comment Microsoft Hyperscaler Datacenter plans Locals will not foot the bill for higher electricity prices Maybe soon companies will provide more amenities to local communities - easing the pressure more One idea is to have industrial and commercial power usage in the US increase cost so residential could be free (residential is right now half of industrial + commercial) - so residents get free, but commercial costs go up so they can reduce their costs by investing in their own infrastructure - so a market force is created and its decentralized Jason and Chamath pitching their off the grid solution (talking their book?) with having residential have storage + panels OpenAI compute deal with Cerebras Andrew Feldman has done a great job BTA - Billionaire Tax Act 10 states ban asset taxes Only Texas explicitly bans wea...

January 15 2026 FDA Commissioner In San Francisco for JPM Health Conference Hospital Price Transparency Sociology of Medical Dogma FDA wastage 2000 HR people before he got there 1500 IT people before he got there 20000 employees total before he got there Previous commissioner’s first priority was to fight misinformation - new priority is to deliver better care and healthier food Accelerating drug approvals Eliminating/reducing animal trials Animal testing might not help - in fact can hurt Computational models can fix it Might want to introduce continuous trials Planning to allow use of Bayesian statistics Safety-ism has hurt people by delaying access to medication Surprises Each of the centers had their own silos - a guy would move documents from 1 center to another because of lawyer requirements 1 guy was the ink guy on the fax machine All cleaned up Food pyramid Everyone knows it was backwards - was wrong - childhood obesity was off the charts Too much...

January 14 2026 Bob Sternfels - McKinsey Hemant Taneja - General Catalyst CEO AI disruption McKinsey hiring changing - more client facing, less non-client facing Kids need to learn how to ask the right questions instead of just focusing on solving hard math problems Robotics and automation will carry the day Jason giving giant infomercial for Tesla Optimus

January 12 2026 First ever ad read - Paypal Open by Friedberg Palisades fire recap 1 year ago 6837 structures destroyed - ~5000 homes As of Nov 2025 only 1 home has been rebuilt Carolla lives in Malibu - saw the fire breakout as it happened - evacuated later that night Early life in construction - familiar with the issue Has encountered a lot of bureaucracy over the years California Coastal Commission and other departments make it hard to build - permitting process is insane Diagnosis Blames what he calls Gyno fascism - safetyism and environmentalism They hide behind the shield of safety and don’t think about the second order effects of making everything “safer” Blames Barbara Ferrer for shutdown Shows how teachers unions are very powerful Rochelle Walensky had to walk back her covid shutdown comments Why are they allowed to elect politicians? Shows how absurd it is that the LA Times would endorse a political candidate - then how can you trust their reporting on...