All the crap you never needed

November 26 2025 Molly’s Game insights Jason not really invited by her ever - he claims he did get an invite World class skier - injured during college so moved to LA to explore Got into poker through a chance opportunity - recognized the opportunity and capitalized on it Access to any part of higher society through this $10K to $50K buyin in her LA game Someone in LA (speculation about who) - took over her game So she moved to New York $250K buyin in her NY games $10M on the table at times Raised in a competitive environment by her father with 2 other super successful brothers Got involved with folks from Brighton Beach, etc - folks who were involved with the Russian mob, and there were folks who claimed to be with the Italian mob who attacked her Apparently some of those folks might have been arrested in the mob shakedown a few days later She dropped her standards about who she let in the game She started taking a cut from the pots (casinos are licensed to do this but...

November 21 2025 Besties live from the Venetian Epstein Files release 427-1 vote to release them If Trump was guilty then the material would have been out already? He is the most investigated, most litigated person out there - so why didn’t the Biden administration release the files when they were in power? One theory could be that the Dems are also culpable? Claims that there were a 1000 women victimized on the island - if true its even more horrifying than earlier thought The release of the files is about the agreements between folks in power and the folks who vote for them/want something in return? Downstream effects - JFK files, Martin Luther King files, Amelia Earhart files, UFO files, etc - hopefully Need more transparency Maybe Epstein was a spy or worked with agencies - this is speculation The big question is where did all his money come from Leon Black from Apollo apparently gave Epstein $168M for tax advice once The best estate lawyers in the US will charge $5...

November 14 2025 Michael Burry AI short Media reporting of $900M vs $9M might have affected the short/long positions? Conspiracy Theory: Was the reporting in on it? His thesis might be apparently around difference in reporting on how depreciating assets might work That the Hyperscalers claiming 2x increase in depreciating schedule (artificially?) 2020/2021 is when these schedules started changing (extending) Friedberg checked with friends at folks in some of these places and apparently GPUs/TPUs are still being used 7-8 years later so maybe the schedules ARE correct? Shorting is just somebody’s ability to cry “fire” in a crowded theater - its hard to claim fraud in 2025 for well run public companies Palantir Very successful Markets - voting matter today and weighing matter in the future (as Warren Buffett has said in the past) Some folks are shorting Palantir too! Palantir is valued high because its well run AND unique - so there is a lack of credible competitors at...

November 7 2025 Brad Gerstner back!!! Sam Altman on BG2 spiciness Spicy response to softball question of $13B revenue (reported) vs $1.4T spend commitment Response to the conversation seems to have led to AI bear case (microsoft, nvidia, broadcom, oracle, coreweave) But other factors could be at play too - Google doing really well (Apple might cede their AI business to them?) Market could in general be heading into a risk-off mode (for 2-3 months - back to risk on by Feb) - thinks Chamath OpenAI CFO talking about Federal government financial backstop confused folks too Sacks clarified there will be no federal bailout for AI Power is the real gating issue here - that’s what the real problem is Jensen Huang - China is going to win the AI race China is doing well - proof is that some Qwen like model was used by Cursor in Cursor 2.0 apparently (they swapped out Anthropic it seems) Federal AI bailout is NOT Federal regulations/pre-emption CA, NYC, Colorado, Illinois - all bl...

October 31 2025 X Platform, Algorithm Changes, and Grok New feature: "Disgraziad Corner" First recipients: Jason Calcanis and Pete Buttigieg for virtue signaling about past work at Amnesty International Algorithm (the "torrent" issue) Previously a bug hid posts from followed accounts Overcorrection added too much gain: any interaction produced a torrent of similar content Mostly fixed now Benefit: interest-based algorithm provides a 360-degree view on subjects Legacy code and deletion Gradually deleting legacy Twitter heuristics Removing one bug can reveal another that was previously covered Future updates Add a curated Following tab Grok will surface most interesting posts from friends/followed to cut through prolific posters Grok's scale and role Platform handles ~100 million posts per day Grok to read, understand, categorize, and match top 10 million posts to users daily Requires substantial compute, estimated on the order of 50,000 ...

  All In Interview - Pete Buttigieg - October 30 2025 Characterizing Silicon Valley people as rich men who are pragmatically supporting the Republicans because their policies support the rich Claims false equivalencies between Covid era censorship and FCC head threatening action against comedians criticizing President’s policies Claims richest people pay too little in taxes Refutes criticism of his record (not) building chargers with tax payer money Claims it needs till 2030 Claims US workers need to build chargers, else could have bought from China if things were needed to be done faster Claims < 1% of money given to US govt is wasted/fraud Claims 2023 issues with FAA, etc are due to needing more funding Claims credit for 0 air crash fatalities out of 4B passengers in the air during his tenure Claims private sector couldn’t have done the internet Admits he didn’t reduce his budget as City Mayor - claims it was put to better use Debt is unsustainable Claims we ne...

 October 28 2025 Background and the tragedy of oil wealth Political context María Corina Machado (MCM) won the Nobel Peace Prize shortly before this interview. She won the presidential primary in October 2023 but was disqualified from the general election. MCM appointed Edmundo Gonzalez as her surrogate candidate. The opposition claimed 69.12% of the general election votes, contradicting Maduro's declaration of 51% victory. Oil reserves and history Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world at roughly 300 billion barrels. The economic boom started after oil discovery in 1914 and accelerated in 1922. The economy transitioned from investment by the "seven sisters" oil companies to nationalized oil production . Lesson Venezuela, once among the richest and freest countries in the Americas, has become one of the poorest. Natural endowments are not wealth; wealth requires talent, institutions, and freedom to turn resources into well‑being...

October 27 2025 Early Life/Education Grew up in San Pedro, California. Father was a smart, non-high school educated fireman who built things in the garage, giving JM an empirical view of physics. Loved high school physics due to the math and concepts involved. Undergraduate: UC Berkeley (finished degree in Astrophysics, after switching from Physics and Math). Graduate School: UC Berkeley; studied under John Clark , focusing on quantum mechanics and electrical devices. Anthony Leggett: Nobel laureate (2003) for work on superfluid helium-3. Posed the critical question that led to JM's Nobel-winning experiment: Do macroscopic objects behave quantum mechanically? Core Concepts of Quantum Mechanics (QM) QM Focus: Developed to describe small things (electrons, atoms, fundamental constituents). Probability: QM uses probabilities (wave functions) to describe the location, energy, and movement of particles. It is non-intuitive and non-deterministic. Waves: Electrons a...

October 24 2025 CA Wealth Tax SEIU filed a ballot initiative - direct to voter vote - introduce 5% of net worth for Billionaires - 1 time payment to state of CA Even if it doesn’t pass, they will use this as bait to catch the people who oppose it and target them in the next election cycle This is why JCal left CA for Texas just in time They are already trying to pass Prop 55 - for people making more than a million dollars Voters will just agree to hurt the 200 californians - draw a bright line between these 200 and the others Eventually most of the entrepreneurs will leave No one will educate the people that we have a $300B budget, most of which is waste They are doing this mainly to fund pension programs, etc Devious people have drafted this - Roth IRAs over $10M are also not exempt (even if you paid tax up front) We all know this won’t be a 1 time thing - if its to plug a deficit, they will run deficits every year They have no incentive to fix their mismanagement if th...

 October 23 2025 He likes Chevrolet Stingray New book/audiobook Was a boy scout Build Back Better opposition Had death threats from people in his own party (Democrats) Explains reason for filibuster, senate majority requirement of 60 votes vs House simple majority model (hot cup of tea → cool down) Reconciliation (simple majority) vs Cloture (60 votes) ARP was going to add 1.9T to 2020 3.2T stimulus He refused to listen to the President - Democrat pressure was so high their death threats became serious - threats to his children and grandchildren - kayaks came to attack him, it was climate people - they were all organized and paid - you could sign up and get $15/hr Claims Ron Klein pushed Biden far left - Biden had a hard time dealing with his staff - that’s where his age hurt him, not so much that he was demented or old, etc Democrats want to remove the filibuster? Harry Reid wanted to do something like this Reverse happened to them with Supreme Court going 6-3 agai...

The All-In Podcast E247: Key Insights From October 17, 2025 Dreamforce Dinner Drama & San Francisco's Changing Landscape The recent Dreamforce conference sparked controversy when the SF Standard criticized Marc Benioff for his conversations with David Sacks. What began as an innocent dinner became fodder for media speculation, highlighting the ongoing tension between tech leaders and local press in the Bay Area. Benioff found himself in another controversy after making an off-hand comment about deploying the National Guard to San Francisco—a remark that was quickly blown out of proportion by media outlets. Despite the negative press, San Francisco has actually made significant progress in addressing its long-standing issues: Crime rates have decreased 30% citywide and 40% downtown All tent encampments have been cleared The police department has experienced a net gain in officers for the first time in years Conviction rates have improved Deportation of Honduran national...

All In Interview - Andrew Ross Sorkin - October 16 2025 America’s consumer credit boom began in the 1920s. Automakers and appliance companies normalized buying on credit, underwriting was lax, and stocks surged 48% in 1928. With few rules and no SEC, corporations even lent off their balance sheets so people could buy equities. The era’s heroes, from RCA to industrial titans like John Raskob, created a social pressure to speculate. The technology shift to radio amplified the fever. As ever, innovation rode alongside speculation. Regulatory guardrails arrived only after the crash. The Glass–Steagall framework later separated commercial and investment banking and created the FDIC. That regime wasn’t only about consumer protection. It also corralled the “800‑lb gorilla” of universal banking to reduce systemic risk. Personalities mattered. Charlie Mitchell, the Jamie Dimon of his day and a NY Fed power broker, pushed for easier money. Senator Carter Glass, more akin to today’s populist skep...

October 10 2025 BG is back!!!!! 👏 I. The "Moonshot Presidency" Agenda: Geopolitics and Domestic Policy The "Moonshot Presidency" involves high-risk, high-reward efforts across multiple fronts, including China, AI, re-industrialization, India, Pakistan, Ukraine/Russia, and the Middle East. A. Geopolitical Success: The Middle East Peace Deal Gaza Peace Deal Details: ◦ President Trump announced the first phase of a multi-stage peace deal between Israel and Hamas, notably two years after the October 7th attacks. ◦ The deal is based on Trump's 20-point peace plan . ◦ Phase 1 Components: Includes a ceasefire, unrestricted aid into Gaza, release of all remaining Israeli hostages, release of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, and the start of troop withdrawal. Diplomacy and Brokerage: ◦ The deal is seen as a "big breakthrough" and a "big accomplishment". ◦ President Trump demonstrated "a degree of will unlike any other presid...

October 3 2025 Push up challenge EA going private $55B Silver Lake, Saudi PIF, Kushner’s Affinity Partners Games are huge - 3B DAU IP creators (EA, etc) vs Gatekeepers (Microsoft, XBOX, Playstation, etc) This is a huge asset - probably bigger than social media - but creators don’t win enough AI will accrue to video game entertainment much more than social media or traditional media engagement - this is one view - and could explain part of the thesis for this deal (at least in potential) Deflationary effects of AI will give people more free time - so general market for entertainment will grow - Gaming is a huge part of entertainment Saudis are going big after gaming - chunks of blizzard, take2, etc - and whole games/companies, etc Why is PE becoming so large? When too much money goes in, returns compress Distributions on Paid in Capital - DPI is more important than IRR - this has been less in PE recently - so money will leave this asset class SPAC 2.0 Traditional IPO...

  All In Interview - Congressman Ro Khanna: October 2 2025 4th time on the pod H1B There is abuse Disagrees with 100K fee and Trump’s tactics - but agrees with direction Hurts startups Calls out TCS, Cognizant, etc Need Chinese AI talent Supports faster green card approvals for talented folks Companies will just offshore the jobs to their overseas HQs TDS Acknowledges Biden administration border controls (lack of) Disagrees with Trump asylum shutdown Agrees with Trump on prescription drug issue Democrats need to call balls and strikes like Ro Both sides need to tone down hateful rhetoric Tech leaving the Democrats 95/100 tech were all Democrats (even Chamath) Biden administration looked at SV as money machine - it was instead about culture Trump shows he can act - he listened at the dinner and then for example helped push back on EU pressure on Google But does he listen to everyone? Doesn’t seem to be working with tariffs Economic patriotism Need to dou...

  E244: September 26 2025 Emirates first class reviews H1B issue $100K fee Who is really getting these visas? Alternately hold an auction? Chamath, Elon, Sundar, Satya all came on H1B Applications vs quotas Salaries OPT program is an alternative - to see how well they do 1-2 years after graduating from MS, PhD $100K over 6-7 years amortized might be worth it for the right talent - alternatively force the companies to pay these people more H2A farm worker program is different - US taxpayer is paying a premium for foreign workers - even though US workers don’t do this job Operation Paperclip in the 40s-60s to get german scientists - might need something like that today - see China reportedly banning DeepSeek engineers from leaving the country Can revive National Interest Waiver conversation Tylenol and Autism Insane increase in cases Folate receptor issue identified Leucovorin and autism Andrea Lucarelli study Johns Hopki...

Sep 17 2025 Trump makeover of White House Oval Office Tour 1BBB rescored by CBO from -$2T to +$300B Called the bottom of the market in the last crash Tax package benefits (some not seen yet)

 September 19 2025 Charlie Kirk murder How much does covid lockdowns and online subculture ratholing has to do with the ideology here? Shot the man down instead of shout the man down Kirk was too honest, too effective, too sensible and changed people’s minds through his discourse - became a threat Very sad The fact that this happened on a college campus seems like an attack on the citadel of the American town square What is happening that allows these young men to become so unmoored? Increasing view among young people that political violence is OK Even when Bernie Sanders, Ezra Klein put out excellent statements, they were shouted down Randi Weingarten’s book on Fascism is part of this trend of our school system indoctrinating kids J K Rowling tweet is well said here Jimmy Kimmel off ABC How much govt influence was here vs Disney and the affiliates making a business decision? Jon Stewart has also pointed out (in the past) how this is a tough business rig...

September 6 2025 Jason/Sacks banter White House Tech dinner Lot of big leaders - representing ~half the tech industry by market cap Gates, Zuck, Cook, Brin, Pichai, Altman, etc Big moment for Sacks Lot of comity in the room - largely on the same page wrt what was happening in the economy and world and what they needed for the tech industry to do well in the world Pro innovation, pro exports, pro energy, pro worker Friedberg had a good podcast with Rand Paul Sacks, Chamath, Friedberg got to hang with the President in the White House and chill Karoline Leavitt etc seemed very competent Incredible scenes Melania Trump championing AI for education for kids Consensus in the room seemed to be that current administration is doing a better job letting the leaders do their work vs the Biden administration Biden/Kamala didn’t pursue this group and didn’t engage with them Trump 2.0 is engaging the business community and meeting them where they are This...