All the crap you never needed

May 31 2025 Sacks wearing Brioni AIS 2025 AI Doomerism Anthropic CEO predicts layoffs to rise AI has risks but seems these guys have a pattern of creating sensationalism When you have more leverage possible - then you do more - just because software can be written by AI models - now you will see more investment, not less Premise that AI destroys jobs is wrong because it ignores the much higher return on capital that you will get when you use AI Is there any correlation between these pronouncements from Anthropic and their fund raising activity? There seems to be a whole industrial complex of this There is a lot of patterns here Dustin Moskovitz is apparently involved - Dario’s family is also apparently involved The agenda here is global AI governance maybe? Global Compute governance proposing all kinds of globalist AI regulations This seems similar to Biden AI agenda also Powerful Biden staffers work at Anthropic (Elizabeth Kelly, Tarun Chhabra,...

May 23 2025 All In Summit Bond market chaos Weak bond demand 10 year yields spiked Govt sells bonds to fund its activities Crazy debt projections 😟 Market does not want to buy debt from government Big beautiful bill is the anti-DOGE Worst case for financial situation Bill passed 215-214, 1 person slept on the floor and didn’t vote Gold and BTC spiked US downgraded Bill favors traditional republicans and traditional democrats Energy prices will spike, AI energy generation will be harder Fed might increase interest rates Republicans abandoned DOGE Tax cuts are good at least Better border security What is happening in Japan currency/bond markets might lead to $1T sale of US treasuries This could devalue the dollar This bill will hurt the US economy US politicians don’t want austerity President doesn’t have enough power over spending People vote for Republicans to cut taxes and cut spending - they did 1 out of 2 this tim...

May 16 2025 Ben Shapiro joins the show Phil Hellmuth apology AllIn poker tournament in Vegas Trump Middle east trip $600B investment commitment from Saudi Arabia Defense partnership Business delegation $200B from Qatar Removed sanctions against Syria Speech against american intervention and forever wars credited new generation of middle east leadership Investment and business deals have strategic benefits US should also have strings attached to deals being made - both sides should have leverage Groq deals in Saudi Arabia $400M plane gift from Qatar (has been given to other countries before too) Deal was it would go to Presidential library of Trump So fair to raise eyebrows Pam Bondi was also a foreign registered agent of Qatar for lobbying Unnecessary distraction - appearance of impropriety can scuttle important agenda points for economy China through Belten Road 1.0 eroded American hegemony worldwide $200B investment in Saudi and Qatar over the last few decad...

May 9 2025 Shiso Miami tip story Besties Miami event was a hit (Nico Rosberg, Sergey Brin, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Tony Robbins, Antonio Gracias) Phillippe Laffont from Coatue Management joins the show Fed holds rates steady Tariff uncertainty Fed is concerned about higher unemployment and higher inflation risks Maybe Fed is not cutting because the economy is strong News (hard data) is good and sentiment is bad Fed signaled that they might step in to fix liquidity but not to just rescue equity markets for the sake of it Hard data Consumer spending is resilient (visa, mastercard spending) Sentiment might be a lagging indicator Is Fed getting too political in its response? UK trade deal - will other countries also cut deals? So then Federal govt will get steady revenue stream - it can help them cut taxes - so its a dynamic system - so the Fed is waiting for data maybe False narrative that X% tariff gets fully passed onto pricing - maybe only half...

May 2 2025 Not everyone can afford private jets No Friedberg 😟 Aaron Levie and Ryan Petersen join the show Chamath and Sacks are part of a new club in DC Trump first 100 days Hard to react for outsiders - OODA (observe, orient, decide and act) loop is hard to even do So many changes so fast Tariffs has been hard to deal with AI has been very positive (thanks to Sacks) Chamath gives B+ overall score Good Border illegal crossings are down Investment in US Controversial Tariffs not so bad - stock market and interest rate markets haven’t been hurt that much Bad Documents (epstein files, mlk files, jfk files (redacted)) Tariffs communication and back and forth Markets have been let to be too volatile Crypto also seems to be tightening up Wokeism and DEI have also been hurt Reprivatization of the economy is a work in progress Trump has made good progress on ending the war in Ukraine NYT article shows America was very involved in Ukraine war Tariff imp...

April 25 2025 Jason out - he’s at Knicks game in Detroit Andrew Ross Sorkin joins the show Trump Rally vs Bessent Put? Put is usually when treasury (tarp etc) or Fed buys maybe bonds/treasuries If market selloff delegitimizes Trump does that mean a market rally gives him unconditional credit? Clearly Trump/Bessent will not let global economy grind to a halt Trump tariffs seem like a negotiating point Developing nation status vs developed nation status - China has been able to leverage that with tariffs, etc and exploit rare earth situation China owns ~90% of rare earth processing Monsanto example in India with price fixing Ken Griffin skeptical of US economic environment and favorability Trumpian approach is “controversy elevates message” If China controls inputs to all important technologies - then US needs to stand up and figure out how to push back Apple is apparently moving iPhone sourcing to India from China Security first, then Trade US-India relationship is th...

April 18 2025 Last episode reached #4 in the world Friedberg won latest jeopardy round Tim Dillon joins the show Nvidia H20 export controls Export controls vs tariffs Some of this dates back to 2019 Trump administration with lithography controls Biden administration added more chips to the controls So Nvidia worked on a different chip that would be compliant These measures might make China beat US in AI (Gavin Baker and Bill Gurley, etc) China has already demonstrated they can build advanced chips (like those used in Huawei, etc) How much is China getting from other regions? Is this similar to the case of some TSMC chip that showed up in a Huawei AI processor? Trump vs Harvard Administration targeting policies and Harvard funding Harvard is now getting a reputation that they discriminate in their admissions What is the point of providing tax benefits to these private universities when they are openly ideological? Harvard has $53.2B endowment ...

April 11 2025 Sacks is back No Friedberg 😟 Ezra Klein joins the show Podcast of The Ezra Klein show Founder of Vox Abundance book with Derek Thompson Larry Summers joins the show Fmr President of Harvard Govt appointments Trump tariffs and China positioning Wild swings in tariff position Stock market hit Volatility Still lot of tariffs in place Markets have lost ~$4T-$6T Could be worse if you count how workers are hurt If they really didn’t care about Wall St then why were they happy about market going up a couple of days ago? This can reduce demand, increase unemployment, increase prices - which is all bad for people US is trading like an emerging market country right now Zeitgeist around America changing to that of Peron’s Argentina style Authoritarian tendencies, cronyism, etc Counter World is happily embracing 10% tariffs for US China isolated Can’t achieve this by asking nicely - that’s not how things work Stock market is crash o...

April 4 2025 Chamath entering Friedberg transgressions into White House records Ben Shapiro joining Antonio Gracias joining (from White House) Democrat for 20 years Knocked on doors for Hilary Clinton in Iowa Was a major donor to the democrat party Antonio with DOGE Wanted to go to VA but Elon suggested he go to SSA Took a finance guy and an engineer guy from Valor SSNs - you can get if you’re a legal immigrant, green card holder The growth in SSNs is quite surprising Extraordinary claims Apparently folks get in at the border, file a form which doesn’t make it hard to get into the country There is no real ID verification People get the SSN in their email 4 times more likely to get birthday as 1/1 - seems like clearly fake birthdays 20% of records didn’t have fingerprints Folks at border were overwhelmed Highest suicide rates among agents at this time So total 5.4M people Apparently 1.3M on Medicaid 1000s of these people registered to vote Some of th...

March 28 2025 Chamath abusing Friedberg’s dog Marshall Gavin Baker joins the show Nvidia Gavin called on by Jensen Nvidia balance sheet questions NVidia reference architecture for example that Coreweave went with worked out for Nvidia It means their buyers were more fragmented (vs hyperscalers to begin with) - and so it worked well Nvidia has gone through a big product cycle AR - accounts receivable went up more than sales Coreweave IPO Raising $1.5B (down from $2B) Have $8B debt Microsoft biggest customer NVidia big customer and investor Neocloud with GPUs Crazy GPU demand right now (even in China) Seems investor sentiment is negative going into the IPO Folks are not sure what the differentiation is (this might be a commodity investment) People might be underestimating the complexity of the implementation Wrath of Lina Khan is over - perception or reality? Many acquisitions happening in the last month Very good for the market AI cold war US raising export controls with an eye to China...