All the crap you never needed

The All-In Podcast E247: Key Insights From October 17, 2025 Dreamforce Dinner Drama & San Francisco's Changing Landscape The recent Dreamforce conference sparked controversy when the SF Standard criticized Marc Benioff for his conversations with David Sacks. What began as an innocent dinner became fodder for media speculation, highlighting the ongoing tension between tech leaders and local press in the Bay Area. Benioff found himself in another controversy after making an off-hand comment about deploying the National Guard to San Francisco—a remark that was quickly blown out of proportion by media outlets. Despite the negative press, San Francisco has actually made significant progress in addressing its long-standing issues: Crime rates have decreased 30% citywide and 40% downtown All tent encampments have been cleared The police department has experienced a net gain in officers for the first time in years Conviction rates have improved Deportation of Honduran national...

All In Interview - Andrew Ross Sorkin - October 16 2025 America’s consumer credit boom began in the 1920s. Automakers and appliance companies normalized buying on credit, underwriting was lax, and stocks surged 48% in 1928. With few rules and no SEC, corporations even lent off their balance sheets so people could buy equities. The era’s heroes, from RCA to industrial titans like John Raskob, created a social pressure to speculate. The technology shift to radio amplified the fever. As ever, innovation rode alongside speculation. Regulatory guardrails arrived only after the crash. The Glass–Steagall framework later separated commercial and investment banking and created the FDIC. That regime wasn’t only about consumer protection. It also corralled the “800‑lb gorilla” of universal banking to reduce systemic risk. Personalities mattered. Charlie Mitchell, the Jamie Dimon of his day and a NY Fed power broker, pushed for easier money. Senator Carter Glass, more akin to today’s populist skep...

October 10 2025 BG is back!!!!! 👏 I. The "Moonshot Presidency" Agenda: Geopolitics and Domestic Policy The "Moonshot Presidency" involves high-risk, high-reward efforts across multiple fronts, including China, AI, re-industrialization, India, Pakistan, Ukraine/Russia, and the Middle East. A. Geopolitical Success: The Middle East Peace Deal Gaza Peace Deal Details: ◦ President Trump announced the first phase of a multi-stage peace deal between Israel and Hamas, notably two years after the October 7th attacks. ◦ The deal is based on Trump's 20-point peace plan . ◦ Phase 1 Components: Includes a ceasefire, unrestricted aid into Gaza, release of all remaining Israeli hostages, release of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, and the start of troop withdrawal. Diplomacy and Brokerage: ◦ The deal is seen as a "big breakthrough" and a "big accomplishment". ◦ President Trump demonstrated "a degree of will unlike any other presid...

October 3 2025 Push up challenge EA going private $55B Silver Lake, Saudi PIF, Kushner’s Affinity Partners Games are huge - 3B DAU IP creators (EA, etc) vs Gatekeepers (Microsoft, XBOX, Playstation, etc) This is a huge asset - probably bigger than social media - but creators don’t win enough AI will accrue to video game entertainment much more than social media or traditional media engagement - this is one view - and could explain part of the thesis for this deal (at least in potential) Deflationary effects of AI will give people more free time - so general market for entertainment will grow - Gaming is a huge part of entertainment Saudis are going big after gaming - chunks of blizzard, take2, etc - and whole games/companies, etc Why is PE becoming so large? When too much money goes in, returns compress Distributions on Paid in Capital - DPI is more important than IRR - this has been less in PE recently - so money will leave this asset class SPAC 2.0 Traditional IPO...

  All In Interview - Congressman Ro Khanna: October 2 2025 4th time on the pod H1B There is abuse Disagrees with 100K fee and Trump’s tactics - but agrees with direction Hurts startups Calls out TCS, Cognizant, etc Need Chinese AI talent Supports faster green card approvals for talented folks Companies will just offshore the jobs to their overseas HQs TDS Acknowledges Biden administration border controls (lack of) Disagrees with Trump asylum shutdown Agrees with Trump on prescription drug issue Democrats need to call balls and strikes like Ro Both sides need to tone down hateful rhetoric Tech leaving the Democrats 95/100 tech were all Democrats (even Chamath) Biden administration looked at SV as money machine - it was instead about culture Trump shows he can act - he listened at the dinner and then for example helped push back on EU pressure on Google But does he listen to everyone? Doesn’t seem to be working with tariffs Economic patriotism Need to dou...

  E244: September 26 2025 Emirates first class reviews H1B issue $100K fee Who is really getting these visas? Alternately hold an auction? Chamath, Elon, Sundar, Satya all came on H1B Applications vs quotas Salaries OPT program is an alternative - to see how well they do 1-2 years after graduating from MS, PhD $100K over 6-7 years amortized might be worth it for the right talent - alternatively force the companies to pay these people more H2A farm worker program is different - US taxpayer is paying a premium for foreign workers - even though US workers don’t do this job Operation Paperclip in the 40s-60s to get german scientists - might need something like that today - see China reportedly banning DeepSeek engineers from leaving the country Can revive National Interest Waiver conversation Tylenol and Autism Insane increase in cases Folate receptor issue identified Leucovorin and autism Andrea Lucarelli study Johns Hopki...

Sep 17 2025 Trump makeover of White House Oval Office Tour 1BBB rescored by CBO from -$2T to +$300B Called the bottom of the market in the last crash Tax package benefits (some not seen yet)

 September 19 2025 Charlie Kirk murder How much does covid lockdowns and online subculture ratholing has to do with the ideology here? Shot the man down instead of shout the man down Kirk was too honest, too effective, too sensible and changed people’s minds through his discourse - became a threat Very sad The fact that this happened on a college campus seems like an attack on the citadel of the American town square What is happening that allows these young men to become so unmoored? Increasing view among young people that political violence is OK Even when Bernie Sanders, Ezra Klein put out excellent statements, they were shouted down Randi Weingarten’s book on Fascism is part of this trend of our school system indoctrinating kids J K Rowling tweet is well said here Jimmy Kimmel off ABC How much govt influence was here vs Disney and the affiliates making a business decision? Jon Stewart has also pointed out (in the past) how this is a tough business rig...

September 6 2025 Jason/Sacks banter White House Tech dinner Lot of big leaders - representing ~half the tech industry by market cap Gates, Zuck, Cook, Brin, Pichai, Altman, etc Big moment for Sacks Lot of comity in the room - largely on the same page wrt what was happening in the economy and world and what they needed for the tech industry to do well in the world Pro innovation, pro exports, pro energy, pro worker Friedberg had a good podcast with Rand Paul Sacks, Chamath, Friedberg got to hang with the President in the White House and chill Karoline Leavitt etc seemed very competent Incredible scenes Melania Trump championing AI for education for kids Consensus in the room seemed to be that current administration is doing a better job letting the leaders do their work vs the Biden administration Biden/Kamala didn’t pursue this group and didn’t engage with them Trump 2.0 is engaging the business community and meeting them where they are This...

September 5 2025 Friedberg interviews Rand Paul Intro Followed in his dad’s footsteps - Doctor and then lawmaker Family of doctors Politics Libertarian, Tea Party, Deficit hawk Free trade Globalization human progress . org Doesn’t think China ripped us off Tariffs are a tax - sales tax instead of income tax Opposed to Big Beautiful Bill Social Security age increase? Finance and Economy Democrats just want to tax rich people Modern Monetary Theory did work briefly for about 10-15 years COLA = Cost of Living Allowance Fed interest payment games are interesting and obscure - do they benefit the rich more? In economics, things don’t happen gradually - they happen in 2 days Risks of fractional reserve banking Government should spend what is coming in - instead we are overspending $2T extra per year Debt to GDP is getting worse 40-50% of employees earn from fed, state, local govt or govt contractor or get a check from the government in some form Can’t have illega...

August 29 2025 Moose is on the loose AIS 2025 will be awesome Sponsors: Oracle, Circle, etc Trump vs the Fed Firing Lisa Cook - one of the Fed governors She sued questioning his authority to fire him FHFA accused her of mortgage fraud First time in US history that a President has fired a Fed governor Can stop pretending that the Fed governors are independent because their appointment was also kinda political Fed moves too slowly - meets once a month which is not frequent enough for fast moving markets Seems like there’s too much responsibility given to a handful of humans who probably use fewer and poorer inputs Commerce department is more innovative - storing data in the blockchain This can help the market react in real time - Fed should be trying to do more such things These folks get 14 year terms so its supposed to not be affected by politics Powell himself made some questionable decisions Called inflation transitory in May 2021 inspite 5% inflation print...

 E240: August 22 2025 Sacks Jason bulldog adoption - Moose Eric Schmitt interview recap Government censorship AIS 2025 Alex Karp Vlad Tenev Chris Wright Uber CEO Circle CEO Diplo performing Sponsors: Solana, OKX, Google Cloud ($350K again, mini campus), Athletic Brewing, etc AI bubble pop? MIT report on 95% failure of AI pilots Sam Altman bubble claim People are discovering difference between probabilistic software and deterministic software Back office software is a good target - can get high accuracy Sacks vindicated in his stance from earlier that AI is not going to become a be-all end-all all-powerful fantastical utopia We’re not in a recursive loop of self improvement We are in a normal technology race and not some single winner outcome So we can apply a more normal investment and policy mindset to it - so its healthy Different models have different specializations - this belies the idea of 1 model becoming all knowing and all powerful So all the doom...

August 15 2025 Chamath at secretive house Fantastic 4 AIS 2025 summit Alex Karp, Neal Mohan, etc - amazing lineup AI psychosis AI chatbot and human delusions ChatGPT is adding healthful improvements Another manifestation of loneliness epidemic Strong social bonds increase survival in humans by 50% People get caught in mental loops interacting with online tools (like instant messenger in the past, social media then and AI chatbots now) New moral panic Media will love it because social media hit their distribution and now AI will hit their creativity Lawyers will love it so they can sue the companies Mental health crisis - seems to be worsened since covid They went after video games before social media - so its a new thing every time that people want to blame Violent movies before that (rap lyrics, hard rock before that) Social fabric being hurt Many root causes What has happened to young men No social skills to talk to girls ...

August 9 2025 Jason shilling stuff again No Chamath and Sacks Gavin Baker joins the show Ben Shapiro joins the show - has new book coming out Phil Deutch NGP energy partners - debut on the show All in Summit 2025 line up is all star!!! GPT-5 release Underwhelms 2 open weight models also (Friedberg thinks Star Wars is anti tech and anti progress) First time that a new OpenAI model that is not clearly the best The model is able to figure out what kind of task is being asked for The focus was more on the user experience therefore and less on model performance Excellent product company AI total addressable market Questions about ROIC (return on invested capital) We might not be ahead of demand - if anything we’re still behind demand Dotcom era was a telecom bubble The huge focus on energy is because of AI - its giving legs to the push for energy Anthropic said we need 50GW of power for AI by 2028 That’s 5% of total US energy production This is how...

August 1 2025 Jason pitching nicotine pouch product All In AI Summit in DC recap Lot of tech company CEOs wanted in on the event and had to rejected because there wasn’t enough room Trump shoutouts to Besties Cabinet of CEOs Trump speech Regulation and cutting red tape Infrastructure - data centers, power, energy AI exports No woke AI (EO) AI race declaration (like Space race speech by JFK) Speech + EOs + BBB reinforce motivation to go execute on AI priorities for US Energy will be a huge thing to focus on - its crucial for AI Jensen Huang is visionary Private companies are still free to train and infuse their models with whatever ideology they want (DEI, etc) - but the EO clarifies that the federal government will not procure anything like this JD made a strong point about male employment (even college education isn’t helping you get a leg up right now) AI and copyright Why hamstring AI progress in the US to subsidize journalists? AI...

July 23 2025 Sacks victory lap Jacob Helberg joins the show The Hill & Valley Forum collaboration Focus on winning the AI race Can’t afford to lose the race - its existential Michael Kratsios joins the show Director of OSTP Regulation Infrastructure Significant shortage of needs on the ground - electricians, HVAC technicians, etc Its not just about having the best AI engineers Chris Power, Hadrian Need to use AI to power factories to not lose the war China’s lead is immense Hadrian fills this gap with AI powered factories More efficient, more utilization Hoping to roll out more factories Cost of energy and cost of raw materials are a huge problem Jake Loosararian, Gecko Robotics Helps save lives by sending robots to do hard dangerous data gathering Shyam Sankar, Palantir Medical use case * 2 Nuclear submarine parts manufacturer use case Battery/maintenance manufacturing use case AI is not replacing humans but 50x-ing humans It is h...