All the crap you never needed

September 6 2025 Jason/Sacks banter White House Tech dinner Lot of big leaders - representing ~half the tech industry by market cap Gates, Zuck, Cook, Brin, Pichai, Altman, etc Big moment for Sacks Lot of comity in the room - largely on the same page wrt what was happening in the economy and world and what they needed for the tech industry to do well in the world Pro innovation, pro exports, pro energy, pro worker Friedberg had a good podcast with Rand Paul Sacks, Chamath, Friedberg got to hang with the President in the White House and chill Karoline Leavitt etc seemed very competent Incredible scenes Melania Trump championing AI for education for kids Consensus in the room seemed to be that current administration is doing a better job letting the leaders do their work vs the Biden administration Biden/Kamala didn’t pursue this group and didn’t engage with them Trump 2.0 is engaging the business community and meeting them where they are This...

September 5 2025 Friedberg interviews Rand Paul Intro Followed in his dad’s footsteps - Doctor and then lawmaker Family of doctors Politics Libertarian, Tea Party, Deficit hawk Free trade Globalization human progress . org Doesn’t think China ripped us off Tariffs are a tax - sales tax instead of income tax Opposed to Big Beautiful Bill Social Security age increase? Finance and Economy Democrats just want to tax rich people Modern Monetary Theory did work briefly for about 10-15 years COLA = Cost of Living Allowance Fed interest payment games are interesting and obscure - do they benefit the rich more? In economics, things don’t happen gradually - they happen in 2 days Risks of fractional reserve banking Government should spend what is coming in - instead we are overspending $2T extra per year Debt to GDP is getting worse 40-50% of employees earn from fed, state, local govt or govt contractor or get a check from the government in some form Can’t have illega...

August 29 2025 Moose is on the loose AIS 2025 will be awesome Sponsors: Oracle, Circle, etc Trump vs the Fed Firing Lisa Cook - one of the Fed governors She sued questioning his authority to fire him FHFA accused her of mortgage fraud First time in US history that a President has fired a Fed governor Can stop pretending that the Fed governors are independent because their appointment was also kinda political Fed moves too slowly - meets once a month which is not frequent enough for fast moving markets Seems like there’s too much responsibility given to a handful of humans who probably use fewer and poorer inputs Commerce department is more innovative - storing data in the blockchain This can help the market react in real time - Fed should be trying to do more such things These folks get 14 year terms so its supposed to not be affected by politics Powell himself made some questionable decisions Called inflation transitory in May 2021 inspite 5% inflation print...

 E240: August 22 2025 Sacks Jason bulldog adoption - Moose Eric Schmitt interview recap Government censorship AIS 2025 Alex Karp Vlad Tenev Chris Wright Uber CEO Circle CEO Diplo performing Sponsors: Solana, OKX, Google Cloud ($350K again, mini campus), Athletic Brewing, etc AI bubble pop? MIT report on 95% failure of AI pilots Sam Altman bubble claim People are discovering difference between probabilistic software and deterministic software Back office software is a good target - can get high accuracy Sacks vindicated in his stance from earlier that AI is not going to become a be-all end-all all-powerful fantastical utopia We’re not in a recursive loop of self improvement We are in a normal technology race and not some single winner outcome So we can apply a more normal investment and policy mindset to it - so its healthy Different models have different specializations - this belies the idea of 1 model becoming all knowing and all powerful So all the doom...

August 15 2025 Chamath at secretive house Fantastic 4 AIS 2025 summit Alex Karp, Neal Mohan, etc - amazing lineup AI psychosis AI chatbot and human delusions ChatGPT is adding healthful improvements Another manifestation of loneliness epidemic Strong social bonds increase survival in humans by 50% People get caught in mental loops interacting with online tools (like instant messenger in the past, social media then and AI chatbots now) New moral panic Media will love it because social media hit their distribution and now AI will hit their creativity Lawyers will love it so they can sue the companies Mental health crisis - seems to be worsened since covid They went after video games before social media - so its a new thing every time that people want to blame Violent movies before that (rap lyrics, hard rock before that) Social fabric being hurt Many root causes What has happened to young men No social skills to talk to girls ...

August 9 2025 Jason shilling stuff again No Chamath and Sacks Gavin Baker joins the show Ben Shapiro joins the show - has new book coming out Phil Deutch NGP energy partners - debut on the show All in Summit 2025 line up is all star!!! GPT-5 release Underwhelms 2 open weight models also (Friedberg thinks Star Wars is anti tech and anti progress) First time that a new OpenAI model that is not clearly the best The model is able to figure out what kind of task is being asked for The focus was more on the user experience therefore and less on model performance Excellent product company AI total addressable market Questions about ROIC (return on invested capital) We might not be ahead of demand - if anything we’re still behind demand Dotcom era was a telecom bubble The huge focus on energy is because of AI - its giving legs to the push for energy Anthropic said we need 50GW of power for AI by 2028 That’s 5% of total US energy production This is how...

August 1 2025 Jason pitching nicotine pouch product All In AI Summit in DC recap Lot of tech company CEOs wanted in on the event and had to rejected because there wasn’t enough room Trump shoutouts to Besties Cabinet of CEOs Trump speech Regulation and cutting red tape Infrastructure - data centers, power, energy AI exports No woke AI (EO) AI race declaration (like Space race speech by JFK) Speech + EOs + BBB reinforce motivation to go execute on AI priorities for US Energy will be a huge thing to focus on - its crucial for AI Jensen Huang is visionary Private companies are still free to train and infuse their models with whatever ideology they want (DEI, etc) - but the EO clarifies that the federal government will not procure anything like this JD made a strong point about male employment (even college education isn’t helping you get a leg up right now) AI and copyright Why hamstring AI progress in the US to subsidize journalists? AI...

July 23 2025 Sacks victory lap Jacob Helberg joins the show The Hill & Valley Forum collaboration Focus on winning the AI race Can’t afford to lose the race - its existential Michael Kratsios joins the show Director of OSTP Regulation Infrastructure Significant shortage of needs on the ground - electricians, HVAC technicians, etc Its not just about having the best AI engineers Chris Power, Hadrian Need to use AI to power factories to not lose the war China’s lead is immense Hadrian fills this gap with AI powered factories More efficient, more utilization Hoping to roll out more factories Cost of energy and cost of raw materials are a huge problem Jake Loosararian, Gecko Robotics Helps save lives by sending robots to do hard dangerous data gathering Shyam Sankar, Palantir Medical use case * 2 Nuclear submarine parts manufacturer use case Battery/maintenance manufacturing use case AI is not replacing humans but 50x-ing humans It is h...

 July 18 2025

July 12 2025 Chamath fun at Lake Como - at Friedberg’s expense Travis Kalanick and Keith Rabois join the show Pony.ai People are interested in an alternative to Waymo, Tesla etc in autonomous driving - and they are reaching out to TK (presumably others also) for breaking into this space Cloud Kitchens Bowl builder machine Infra for better food (real estate, software, robotics) Uber was “everyone’s private driver” and now he wants to do “everyone’s private chef”, etc The machine can do 300 bowls an hour Internet food court AIS 2025 - Sep 7-8-9 Grok4 launch Scores well in benchmarks The Bitter Lesson - best to use a general approach that scales with computation Any problem should be an endless search or learning task Investable opportunity could be who has a leg up on scientific breakthroughs? What is an AI model that can incorporate the scientific method? Then you could have 1000s of PhDs at your disposal once you have enough GPUs Can these models help us creat...

July 4 2025 AIS 2025 AllIn Tequila orders Big Beautiful Bill Vance had to cast tiebreak vote AI regulation Federal vs State? Clean Energy Subsidies Marginal cost of energy has to go to zero - any way you can produce energy - its a winning trade in the US over the next decade CA has only 5 days of energy deficit per year (PGnE data) Mostly ~50% utilized Elon vs Trump wrt BBB Seems both sides have a valid point of view about the deficit Both too powerful to be able to get along too long Ray Dalio has been calling this situation for a long time - our debt death spiral is probably already here Goals vs Reality 3% inflation → 2.4% 3% GDP growth → 1.4% 3% deficit to GDP → 6% Question is if tax cuts and AI increase GDP growth - how will tariffs help - not sure how any of this works out Balaji has already called that the US is bankrupt This is the issue of our time US dollar down > 10% in 2025 Dollar has devalued 50% or so in the last 35-40 years So t...

June 28 2025 White House funny video All In Tequila release Iran/Israel conflict US helped Israel hit some Iranian facilities Trump is apparently unhappy with Iran and Israel What’s the narrative now - is Trump pro-war or not? You could argue this is establishing US again as “the” superpower Military supremacy Stock market is at ATH (projecting economic supremacy) Unpredictable situation - folks predicted WW3 and it didn’t happen John Mearsheimer called this exact situation at AIS2024 Oil prices Worry that price might rise a lot Nuclear weapons are complicated - giving up your weapons hasn’t been good necessarily - Libya (Gaddafi assassinated), Ukraine (now in war with Russia) Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani going to win NYC Mayor-ship Free buses $30 minimum wage Defund the police, replace them with social workers in high crime areas Grocery stores Friedberg predicted this last year This seems like a canary in the coalmine - this socialism wave will spre...

June 21 2025 Thomas Laffont joins the show Friedberg has 4th baby LA is behind national average of recovery in food and beverage industry (going out to eat, etc) Filmings in LA are down 50% from the peak Other places are giving better movie deals 30% more expensive to shoot in LA/CA Levered to 1 industry that has secular decline AI is helping SF OpenEvidence is a company helping doctors Example of AI accelerating a health care provider Zuckerberg AI offers Scale AI almost acquisition Alexandr Wang joining Meta Crazy $100M offers to OpenAI engineers and other researchers Trying to hire Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross Meta has $70B in cash Scale acquisition seems like the Onava deal from a while ago Similar to HTML5 vs native app discussion at Facebook HTML5 decision one but was wrong - and Zuck admitted it Facebook generically trains on Nvidia and open sources- whereas everyone else is optimizing their models to the hardware (Google with Gemini + TPU...

June 14 2025

May 31 2025 Sacks wearing Brioni AIS 2025 AI Doomerism Anthropic CEO predicts layoffs to rise AI has risks but seems these guys have a pattern of creating sensationalism When you have more leverage possible - then you do more - just because software can be written by AI models - now you will see more investment, not less Premise that AI destroys jobs is wrong because it ignores the much higher return on capital that you will get when you use AI Is there any correlation between these pronouncements from Anthropic and their fund raising activity? There seems to be a whole industrial complex of this There is a lot of patterns here Dustin Moskovitz is apparently involved - Dario’s family is also apparently involved The agenda here is global AI governance maybe? Global Compute governance proposing all kinds of globalist AI regulations This seems similar to Biden AI agenda also Powerful Biden staffers work at Anthropic (Elizabeth Kelly, Tarun Chhabra,...