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Showing posts from 2024

All In Podcast Episode 208 Recap and Notes December 20 2024

December 20 2024 Jason misses Sacks Aaron Levie joins the Pod Subbing in for Sacks Sacks Thinks he’s a strong pick for AI, doesn’t know much about crypto AI regulations Earlier AI regulations were dumb - prescribing inane requirements - would have been bad to have each state with its own regulations Benefitting from competition - would have been bad to have them meet as a council to release improvements Crypto regulation possibilities Stable coins Tether and USDC making good businesses SpaceX/Starlink leveraging stable coins If everyone agrees on this - it could help global GDP a lot - credit card companies and the like charge ~3% of fees for transfers - this could go to 0 Stable coins is a good place to start because everyone agrees on this - BTC and other more speculative projects just invite too much animated conversation Even crypto folks can’t agree on how to regulate parts of this industry DOGE kills its first bill CR was very long - ~1500 pages With al...

All In Podcast Episode 207 Recap and Notes December 13 2024

December 13 2024 Besties going skiing Keith Rabois subbing in for David Sacks Keith back at Khosla Executives become VCs by forging relationships with Board members Switched from KV to FF because of commute 🙂 KV is more early stage Input driven FF is more momentum investing Output driven Likes to help Husband Jacob Helberg - joining Trump administration - Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Trump appointees Amazing number of successful business people in the administration Left also has smart business people but they would never add them to the administration - they look down on successful people This is a good model - this is how the Founding Fathers also operated - this is what we want - people do their government job and go back to regular work Trump is the only modern President whose net worth dropped due to office - everyone made money He asks “why” Google’s Quantum Chip Shore’s algorithm We are 2-5 years away from QC being able to break ...

All In Podcast Episode 206 Recap and Notes December 6 2024

December 6 2024 Sacks and Chamath out - Gavin Baker and Joe Lonsdale in - for this week Sacks is the new AI and Crypto Czar Friedberg anxious about tsunami Jason at Sacks’s house Trump Bump Deregulation and simplifying the tax code will lead to a lot of growth Starting 1883 for about a 100 years we made people take tests in government - starting in 70s and 80s we removed the tests because of concerns about discrimination, etc Friedberg had highlighted debt issue 3 layers Inefficiency and lack of accountability Excessive Spending Debt that spirals Have to match China’s energy production Solar will take 50 years but it should do well - photo voltaic cost is dropping Nuclear is cheaper and cleaner overall Texas is highest solar not because they are left wing but because its faster to build stuff Crypto Paul Atkins in, Gary Gensler out for SEC Bitcoin hit $100K Crypto reduces the power of the nation state - so left wingers are against it David Marcus sharing sto...

All In Podcast Episode 205 Recap and Notes November 23 2024

November 23 2024 Friedberg excited about DOGE DOGE - Elon and Vivek oped in WSJ Team will work with OMB Get rid of $500B not authorized Conduct audits Use West Virginia vs EPA and Loper Bright vs Raimondo (overturning Chevron doctrine) DOGEcast Everything they said is obviously right Government waste is a tax on all of us Why are democrats making this a political issue - this affects all of us At the very least they are highlighting these issues Milton Friedman viral clip Expectations are raised by the clip but lowered by media and Washington insiders No one has made money betting against Elon Musk Vivek Ramaswamy is a big legal mind WSJ oped published it means that this is unifying the party They can show a big leaderboard of what kinds of money wastage is happening This can help the average American feel like they have insight and some control into how the government spends its money CA example Regulatory burde 1997-2015 has incr...

All In Podcast Episode 204 Recap and Notes November 16 2024

 E204: November 16 2024

All In Podcast Episode 203 Recap and Notes November 8 2024

E203: November 8 2024 Trump Wins! Holiday Party Steve Aoke DJing Andrea Botez + Alex will do DJ and Chess Spending $1M+ All In expanded the overton window + foil (Sacks and Jason) - so helped Trump win Indirectly Jason starting All In Pod helped Trump win maybe! Sacks at Mar A Lago Joined Tucker show in the library Trump felt calm Met Elon, Jared, etc Trump had a resounding victory What happened People got tired of being judged harshly by the Dems Comprehensive victory Inflation Bad Dem candidate Podcast strategy Chamath was with Clinton, Obama (during Brexit had breakfast), etc Dems only come to him for money Trump was the only one who just talked to him There have been deliberate efforts to perturb the way he is portrayed and how people from across him are portrayed Message, Messenger and Campaign Strategy Manchin was driven into retirement and Sinema was kicked out of the party because Dems didn’t get to pass even more $4.5T sp...

All In Podcast Episode 202 Recap and Notes November 1 2024

November 1 2024 Jason partying stories from the previous week AllIn holiday party Dec 7 at Palace of Fine Arts Apparently it’ll be $1M party??? Election Night YouTube Live stream at 7pm pacific US GDP growth seems healthy 2.8% growth in Q3 (adjusted for inflation) Better than other western countries Lots of national debt though 3M federal government employees Total almost 25M people working for the government (fed + state + local, etc) Both candidates are proposing lots of spending Government consumption of GDP Most of the gains under Biden administration are from the government But private sector is struggling DropBox layoffs latest example (announced layoffs) Questionable whether this will affect voting because its come so late in the news cycle Voters might be more affected by inflation and jobs Prime Rate is 8% This rate determines bond rates Bank unrealized losses are crazy This is worse than in 2008 Buffett war...

All In Podcast Episode 201 Recap and Notes October 25 2024

 October 25 2024 Jason took Chamath’s sweater 🙂 and everything else 😉 Next to Sacks’s house 🙂 Friedberg’s moderating because Jason’s traveling AllIn Holiday Party! Sacks doesn’t want to come - he likes celebrating the pandemic 6 months a year 😛 Markets Bonds are falling Gold is going up SP500 is also going up BTC is also up US dollar is strong Seems markets are predicting a Trump win from a toss up election Perception that Trump plan will drive better economic growth than the Harris plan Trillions of dollars are moving because they’re predicting a Trump win BTC and Gold go up because of inflation hedge Paul Tudor Jones Long gold, BTC, commodities zero fixed income “all roads lead to inflation” Doesn’t want to own treasuries apparently Even Stan Druckemiller is apparently short US treasuries 20% of his portfolio or something Market doesn’t think inflation is whipped Interest on national debt has gone parabolic 2...

All In Podcast Episode 200 Recap and Notes October 18 2024

  E200: October 18 2024 Friedberg shilling SuperGut AllIn Livestream on Election Night Sacks will go to Mar a Lago if its in the bag for Trump Polls and predictions for Election Both sides think their candidate did well in the adversarial interview and the other candidate failed Media war going on - its fair to ask about the bias in the media Voter verification systems make sense - at least its fair to ask what it should be like Awesome Friedberg answer Elon’s Great Week Tesla We Robot Starship Booster catch SpaceX has reduced cost 10x in the last decade or so Starlink could be one of the biggest businesses on earth Friedberg got his first Tesla - Model S Plaid - better than his Audi RS 7 Uber exploring Expedia acquisition Since Dara left Expedia, stock wise it has been sideways Expedia is just a UI layer on top of the data Why pay potentially $30B? Perplexity is apparently testing a feature where they can book flights for you Should Uber j...

All In Podcast Episode 199 Recap and Notes October 11 2024

October 11 2024 E200 meetups next week allin.com ! Jason secured it Hurricane season Milton lands in Florida :( Downgraded from Cat 5 to 3 to 1 90% of the energy we get from the sun is absorbed into our oceans Removing SO2 from cargo ships - causes acid rain so we removed it - is causing warming in the oceans - doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans SO2 used to trigger cloud formation So are we mean reverting then? Maybe! So it seems we had artificial cooling due to SO2 When hurricanes hit land, they no longer have the hot ocean energy pumping them up So went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 Helene - hot air hit cold mountain and caused a lot of precipitation - like 18 inches of rainfall Economics $500B-$1T of real estate on the Florida coastline Untenable insurance risk now - because of frequency of hurricane events - now you can lose the value of your home once in 20-30 years instead of once in hundreds of years in the past Florida state’s reinsurance capacit...

All In Podcast Episode 198 Recap and Notes October 3 2024

October 3 2024 Mark Cuban joins the podcast! Cuban’s history with Trump Quite amicable overall Likes him personally but doesn’t think he’s the right person for the job Trump’s record Bad Didn’t show great leadership during the BLM riots Support for Saudis during Yemen conflict Interesting linkage between price of oil rise to track inflation Trump helped oil companies by asking Saudis and Putin to curtail production - the deal was 2 years long - and that led to high inflation for that duration which got better after the deal expired Friedberg counters that the cause of inflation was government and Fed monetary and fiscal policy - of pouring trillions of dollars into the world economy (unprecedented) Everything was constrained, not just energy Larry Summers also warned in Q1 of Biden-Harris administration that they were doing the wrong thing with passing the Inflation Explosion Act Good Great salesman, crowd motivator Bringing down corporate tax rate Capital gains ...

All In Podcast Episode 197 Recap and Notes September 27 2024

September 27 2024 OpenAI memoriam parody Chamath on Joe Rogan OpenAI $150B valuation Converting to B corp - benefit corp - kinda like C corp - so fiduciary for not just shareholders but some external factors that’s more than just profits Patagonia is similar - for profit with a mission Non profit is a minority shareholder - much smaller now Profit cap will be removed Probably raising $6.5B Altman might get 7% stake Bull case Can probably invest the capital well - they have lead in model performance, etc Could become a true global player Maybe computing extensions stuff Revenue growth seems strong Some rumors have it higher than 3.4B so closer to 5B maybe? So valuation might be warranted Bear case Underlying technology could be replaced by open source (is Llama really good?) Meta could incorporate AI assistants into their app eco system - Google could do the same thing - so you don’t have to go to ChatGPT maybe Competing with large companies will b...

All In Podcast Episode 196 Recap and Notes September 20 2024

September 20 2024 All In Summit 2024 after glow 20M views for content released so far across YouTube and X Debrief Friedberg did great Team did well Jason was amazing moderator Mearsheimer Sachs was the best panel Fed cuts rates 50 basis points Markets are up Last 3 times rates were cut (~2000, ~2008, ~2020), markets crashed (though 2020 was briefer) If the market is good, why not cut just 0.25% to begin with? Why 0.5%? This could affect hiring badly in the middle class Tech hiring is benefitting if you’re in AI - but otherwise its bad AI disruption Call centers will probably be hit Customer support makes sense for AI - they can rise through the levels of support (tier1, etc) What’s important is minimizing the error rate As the models get so much better - why can’t we just use the models coming next year with a smaller team So this will get commoditized soon So you need to target super highly regulated industries - where you need 0% error rate Klarna claim o...

All In Podcast Episode 195 Recap and Notes September 6 2024

September 6 2024 Founder Mode!!! AIS 2024 Lineup Announcements Elon! Marc Benioff Bari Weiss Kristen Sinema John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs Nikesh Arora Peter Thiel Michael Ovitz (read his book) Panels Tech Robotics Jobee, Archer, Whisk Gecko Robotics - product demo Waymo CEO Altos Labs CEO Adyen - Ingo Megyn Kelly Woody Hoburg Astronaut Thomas Lafont - Coatue cofounder Sponsors Accel Events Merch.com Etc Google Cloud $350K per AI startup Paul Graham Founder Mode essay Brian Chesky YC advice talk Inspired by how Jobs ran Apple maybe Manager mode vs Founder mode There are managers like Nikesh Arora, Shantanu Narayen, Satya Nadella who have created more value than almost all founders bar 1-2 Similar prior art High Output Management - Andy Grove Demon mode at Elon’s companies (from Walter Isaacson book) How novel is this concept really - but also how true is it Silicon Valley ecosystem revolves around Founders But Founders aren’t always rig...

All In Podcast Episode 194 Recap and Notes August 30 2024

August 30 2024 Reif Hoffman joins Paypal memories Sacks figured out the business model quick Hoffman kept all attackers at bay Bill Harris fired from Paypal - conspiracy at Antonio’s Nut House in Palo Alto apparently AI Crazy NVIDIA growth Training vs Inference will play out in a year or two Satya is the best public market CEO of our generation - Hoffman Big tech is buying GPUs to be better positioned - can’t miss out on the wave Lots of winners to come in AI - open source as well as closed Multi model approach will quickly be universal OpenAI corporate structure InflectionAI Lina Khan, FTC Can’t hurt the chance for returns on risk capital Her actions are chilling that market and having the opposite effect - not increasing competition Apple - fewer people hate it - its less offensive Politics chat Biden vs Kamala RFK Jr ballot controversies Extremist rhetoric is to get the votes of the extremes Jan 6 is red line RFK Jr Was offered VP - refused Found c...

All In Podcast Episode 193 Recap and Notes August 23 2024

August 23 2024 Sit to pee BLS revises job numbers down ~30% 818000 down - March 2023 - Mar/Apr 2023 2.9M → 2.1M Largest revision since 2009 (GFC) Professional and business services down Sacks called it MIT publishes admissions data post affirmative action end Racial composition has changed from previously Tier 2 schools’s students might be better than Tier 1 schools’s because they are not corrupted by woke DEI nonsense, are less entitled and work harder Election Kamala doing better in the polls (Silver Bulletin shows her kinda in the lead) But Polymarket has Trump ahead Polling vs Prediction Markets is interesting Comparison of tickets Private vs Public JD Vance is historically the most unpopular VP pick Media coverage of Harris is 84% +ve and Trump is 89% -ve Walz and Harris have only ever worked for the government Vance and Trump have worked in private business Gina Raimundo caught being unaware of BLS - reacted with shock to jobs repo...

All In Podcast Episode 192 Recap and Notes August 16 2024

 E192: August 16 2024

All In Podcast Episode 191 Recap and Notes August 9 2024

August 9 2024 Jason back from covid CDC admits you can treat Covid like the flu now Japan yen carry trade Ideally could be safer to invest in US TBills at 5% with yen borrowings Algorithmic trading could have led to cascading effects Japanese economy Demographic time bomb Average age is 48 now, from 21 in 1950 30% of their budget is social security But to fund this you need to keep interest rates low So that leads to inflation So now you raise interest rates - causing things to crash There’s 4 kinds of economies/countries Developed Undeveloped Japan Argentina This is good for US treasury - coz this yen goes into US T Bills - US debt is growing by $1T every 100 days Recession fears in the US? Airbnb stock dropping could be a leading indicator? Need some government efficiency Private sector is already in recession basically - economy is being propped up by government spending Open border policy causes lower wages and competitive job market - this is...

All In Podcast Episode 190 Recap and Notes August 2 2024

August 2 2024 Chamath frees the button Jason out sick with Covid Friedberg moderates!! Kamala Harris is doing well in the polls Nate Silver’s model is quite favorable to Harris now, she’s gaining on Trump Biden dropped out of the race - he was a surefire loser, so Dems were divided, now there’s euphoria for Kamala, so they’re united and happy Biden was down because he couldn’t campaign This will be a close race But Kamala hasn’t done any real interview or press conferences, no tough questions, has only read from a teleprompter, done scripted appearances and has reversed policy Switched on single payer, court packing, fracking, border, crime, gun buybacks, fund raising for rioters from 2020 (now distancing herself) So she’s getting a free pass because MSM is basically part of DNC But is it sustainable for 100 days leading up to the election? J D Vance Dems called Mitt Romney a fascist Hopefully Trump and Harris can do 2-3 debates Nate Silver analy...

All In Podcast Episode 189 Recap and Notes July 26 2024

July 26 2024 Nostracanis was right Jason moved to Austin Have a horse ranch now Wiz rejects Google’s offer Why? Think they can grow it bigger OR they think it won’t close in the current regulatory environment AT&T SnowFlake incident potentially affected this outcome? Google Cloud revenue growing quite a lot Tracking almost same as AWS Google has lot of cash and free cash flow is growing well - so they’re probably thinking they can grow Cloud business by buying Wiz Peter Thiel - in a fast growing business acquisition - “either the buyer pays too much, or the seller sells way too early” Wiz doing so well - they could realize a Palo Alto Networks style outcome in a few years Crowdstrike outage Software update caused machines to get bricked Lots of flights grounded coz their companies were using this Elon said he’s removing it from all his companies Magnificent 7 sell off? UBI experiment results No real benefits on physical or mental health This shows peop...

All In Podcast Episode 188 Recap and Notes July 18 2024

July 19 2024 Sacks is Emperor Palpatine Trump assassination attempt 8 rounds fired at Trump - Thomas Matthew Crooks apparently Corey Comperatore in the audience was killed Shooter shot dead by Secret Service Shooter posted some messages on social media beforehand about July 13 being eventful How is it even possible? Not clear where incompetence ends and negligence begins Trump should have a lot of momentum now Crowd was shocked he was shot Kids in Africa are also re-enacting the iconic moment MSM has gone out of their way to associate violent rhetoric as an appropriate reaction to Trump Left wingers are sad Trump didn’t get killed - these people are deranged Reid Hoffman wished he had made Trump an actual martyr Jack Black band member was disappointed Trump wasn’t shot Joe Biden said its time to put Trump in the bullseye They say over and over that Trump is hitler, a threat to democracy, he will be the end of democracy If he is Hitler - then why would you offer thoug...

All In Podcast Episode 187 Recap and Notes July 11 2024

July 11 2024 Sacks modeling Hawk Tuah Jason is now appearing on Fox Sacks appearing at RNC - was leaked to NYT Economy Inflation ~3% Chances of rate cut might be higher Big stocks in market going up SP500 PE ratio has gone up a lot Fed is changing the goal posts to normalize 3% inflation So we will see permanently high interest rates Partisan gap on perception See the times both sides agree things are going down - during recession or election? Spread between SP500 equal weight vs regular version is highest since March 2000 right before the dotcom crash AI build out might be over done? Chamath called this out in May So did Friedberg Lots of reports coming out that benefits are not being seen from AI investments yet However models are getting better and better Lots of hardware spending and investment (big tech and startups) because folks want to diversify from NVidia - so payoff will take time We probably just need to be patient A16Z building 2...